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Kambiz Shabankare

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Erdogan: the illusion of ‎historical hero, or opportunistic ‎businessman?‎
by Kambiz Shabankare   
Rated "G" by the Author.
Last edited: Saturday, August 27, 2011
Posted: Wednesday, March 16, 2011

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Erdogan, over one year of the Iranian coup occurred, has found the ‎illusion of power? Or to search a God-given gift to? He considered that to ‎trust Iran to deliver its own uranium, a symbol of Turkey's ability, for ‎presence in global relations, really intends to play the role of a mediator, ‎or think fortify his own position, between the Turkish people, with pockets ‎of Iranians?‎

Kambiz Shabankareh

Erdogan, over one year of the Iranian coup occurred, has found the illusion of power? Or to search a God-given gift to? He considered that to trust Iran to deliver its own uranium, a symbol of Turkey's ability, for presence in global relations, really intends to play the role of a mediator, or think fortify his own position, between the Turkish people, with pockets of Iranians?

Turkey, after by the presence of Erdogan in the prime minister position, apparently has been entered in a heavy challenge with governments and the international community. Turkey to join the Europe Union - that before it could be a growing trend - in the months after entering Ardooghan, the Turkish political scene, was a more difficult day by day, until Turkey has almost reached a deadlock in its relations with Europe.

Request accession of Turkey - to join the community of Europe, which later became the Union of Europe - was presented on 14th April 1987. Turkey, from 12th December 1999 as a candidate for EU membership was formally recognized and began accession negotiations for Turkey of 3th October 2005. It seemed that will take full membership process of Turkey in a 10-year period; But Turkey's political behavior - especially in recent months - may join the Europe Union to Turkey, will require changing the current government.

Before this, there was an important and unresolved issue (from the perspective of Europe Union) in the way of Turkey joining the Europe Union:

■ Cyprus problem and closing ports in Turkey, on the Greek Cypriots

■ Issue of minority rights (especially the Kurds in South-East country), as well as Kurds in northern Iraq.

■ Women’s rights

■ Issue of genocide of Armenians in 1915

■ Infrastructure of democracy

But, Turkish government - which is also looking to find special political situation in the region - rather than to review and resolve the problem, tried to be added as new issues to the above issues. During the past year, moving the Turkish government not only has not been an effort to create a relationship with European countries, but Turkey has far more, the European Union and showed Nicolas Sarkozy  in his first comment after the victory in France , is not wrong. He said: "I can’t imagine that will lead to the borders of Europe Union countries such as Iran, Syria and Iraq."

Turkey's performance in dealing with the Kurds - a pretext for Turkey is to exceed the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan - and Ardooghan’s remarks about Israel - that look more similar to species Ahmadinejad - has added a problem to many problems in Turkey, to join the Europe Union.

On the other hand, trying to expel the Armenians from Turkey - that there is a reaction against the memorial be held by the Armenians, the genocide in 1915 - cannot resolve much of peaceful conflict as well.

However, when union meetings were held, North and South Cyprus, Turkey, held by military exercises, and the assertion that; "Cyprus issue a national problem." Tries indirect, unlikely to consider any possibility of independence of Northern Cyprus, and join it to the territorial integrity of Cyprus.

As it seems, the Turkish government searches for two targets with its behavior, one claims to restore the greatness of Turkey, at the time of the Ottoman - Erdogan, Sultan calls himself and trying to show similarities with the Sultan Abdul Hamid is - and the establishment of a Islamist government alongside Europe - which is not very pleasant thought Europe - and the second; use weapon threat, making for faster EU accession process of Turkey in Europe with minimum cost and without full acceptance of the demands of Europeans.

But such a trend is clear that the costs for the Turkish government will bring to them and Turkish statesmen clearly knows its costs and this problem is to some extent in his path to doubt and indecision has suffered. Most important of these costs is the process of Economic development of Turkish, Economic relations with Iran cannot respond to the Economic turnover between Turkey and Europe.

That's why sometimes makes a double action. Example they allowed with protesters to rally Iranians against the Iranian Embassy in 12th June. The number of Iranians - while the number of Kurds in Turkey escorted them with slogan of we don’t leave our Iranian brothers and sisters - called for expulsion of the Iranian terrorist’s diplomats, release prisoners, stop the execution and murder and were holding a referendum.

Association of Iranians opposite of embassy, while gathering took place just several days before, the Turkish government, along with Brazil, were the only states that had negative vote for the fourth statement of Security Council against Iran. It is certain, before the Iranian Embassy and then the Iranian government, were not given in such a position in the capital of Turkey.

Important point in this protest movement, not rally against the Iranian Embassy, which he attended with the permission of Turkey. This issue may seem to be simple, but once inside semantic behavior indicates two trinity Turkish governments in facing the problem of Iran.  However, the presence of a number of Kurd activists and slogan based on "neither Gaza nor Lebanon, sacrifice my life for Iran”, was an important part of the challenge to Turkey up. Challenge based on an issue that now domestic and foreign policy strategies under the Government of Turkey have radius.

Issue between Turkish government and Kurds in Turkey, is a problem rooted in critical, and even has caused international protests for the behavior of the Turkish government. Conflict between the Kurds and the Turkish government, changed to other way after coming of Najaf Tayyep Erdogan to Turkey’s the political scene. That became one of the reasons for rejection of Turkey in the Europe Union. Despite this problem, especially in recent weeks, the Turkish government and the Iranian government have been attacked and invaded under the pretext of various Kurdish region of Iraq incessant.

On the other hand, after Israeli forces to attack ships carrying aid to Gaza, a wave of protest - from the government and people of Turkey - Cities in Turkey was on, and even to the number of demonstrators attacked to the Israeli embassy in Ankara. In the outcome of Ardooghan in a telephone conversation with Ismail Henie said ": even if we became alone, we will continue our efforts to break the siege of Gaza.

 Following this comment, Erdogan announced that he will go to Gaza with next ships, for ending blockade of Gaza, and in response to his assistant Oozy Diane, former Israeli military headquarters in an interview with Israeli Army Radio said: the Israeli army deployed any new fleet by Turkey to Gaza Would mean to declare war.

He also said: If the Prime Minister of Turkey to join such a fleet, we have already seen this as a declaration of war and we should not try to seize the ship rather we should drown it.

In these conditions, the Turkish government gave permission to hold a march, to tell; despite tensions in foreign relations is a committed to democratic principle. But the slogan "Not Israel, not Lebanon," from a number of Iranians and Kurds, not only can not mean there is democracy in Turkey - Erdogan government performance framework will not get this sense - that show the uncertainty in the Turkish government to take a final decision there.

Erdogan wants to be champion, but this championship also has consequences, that may lead Turkey to a path without return. Yet economic pressures and poor performance of Turkish government, in the recent months showed, that the Turkish government doesn’t have easy way for future referendum and some changes in the structure of the constitution. Because in Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ata Turk has still strong position among the Turks, and a part of Turks and Turkish military- that is protector of the constitution in Turkey - are afraid, Ataturk’s achievements can be lost, if they agreement with changing the constitution. This concern led to the coup by the army in Turkey in previous years, which for example, we can cue to Arbakan removal from the Turkish government.

At the same time, turkey for his aims, needs to strong Iran, against Europe, and especially against Israel, but events in recent weeks demonstrated that despite Iran is trying to threat the world with probability of having nuclear weapons and is showing such as a powerfully for becoming as a world power against European societies and America, but is buckling with many problems.

Budget crisis in Iran, and 180-degrees rotation of Iran's former allies ex part to Europe Union and America, has swamp to up throw basic the Iranian government stance. The Iranian government had treated the entire world with aid by Russia and China before, but now, is looker on that doesn’t have any protector and turkey also has started a twofold game with getting permit to Iranian protest in turkey. Erdogan knows why that situation would be difficult for Iran, and will not take long time that Turkey also would be difficult.

In this context, Mary Ann Slouter, America's foreign policy planning director at Annual Meeting "Security Center Modern America" comment in relation to the resolution the Security Council, said: "Perhaps no one the size of my internal situation in Iran and Iranian political logic of knowledge not because I am part of only a few people who have been successful to negotiate directly with the Iranians and the Iranians know the world only meetings with political officials to listen to the words and then just turns its characters and the situation in the negotiations Nuclear is clearly seen in the Tehran meeting Iranian unresponsive to suggestions Turkey and Brazil just what they wanted and that both countries soon will see its result. "

The threat to Turkey from the good economic situation does not experience up to a lot of pause. Because Barack Obama in the first days after the election victory of Turkey and aid America and Europe to Turkey caused a total economic crisis that Turkey's ruling the world does not experience serious, but after this, the conditions maybe can be different for Turks.

Besides these issues, next week in Europe meeting EU can also be decisive for Turkey. European countries that they don’t think statement of the Security Council can be influence, are trying to sanctions against Iran independent prohibitions.

 Turkey's reaction in this case the sanctions - Considering that still disagree with the Security Council insists – is determinant for joining to the Europe Union. Although Turkey while an Islamist state in the process of fundamental Reload own needs. Because European governments with a fundamentalist country alongside their do not agree.

Besides all the issues are no longer a possibility far does not appear to mind, that Erdogan’s support of Iran, perhaps more fundamental goals is experiencing. Security Council resolution after the announcement of the two sides announced the agreement to leave Iran and Tehran meeting still remains in place and agreed to Iran's uranium would be sent to Turkey. Other side of the new contract between Turkey and South Korea for nuclear cooperation and construction of a nuclear power plant of the coast of Turkey is signed.

This contract can be as providence for turkey. Erdogan, that already, had said about eighteen and a half billion dollar’s illicit load from Iran, "gift of God" and had refused delivered it to the Treasury of Iran; now –as for international pressure towards Iran- hopes This situation is in favor of its use, and will probably also said Iran's uranium, is God-given gift for the development of nuclear industry in Turkey. His most critical economic situation in Turkey, the injection eighteen and a half billion dollars, could earn a good reputation and pull more from the danger of economic collapse in a Black Hole save; hopes now, Iran's uranium can play same role in the development of energy industry in Turkey. A role that is not too high risk, because if  the acceptance of European sanctions, can assign movement as respect for the sanctions and with the international community and yet ensure his presence in the Turkish political scene for long period of time.



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