After watching the concluding episode of 24, I realized that I had lost count of the number of times that Jack Bauer got hit in the shoulder -- and other non-lethal spots -- while he was fighting the forces of evil.  Larger than life characters tend to be able to position themselves to absorb the unexpected so that the blows are seldom life-threatening.

Project managers need to develop the same kind of expertise.  The unexpected in a project is the norm rather than the exception.  However, if the unexpected event (the unknown unknown in risk terminology) is aimed at the critical path or a critical resource or a critical stakeholder, the blow to the project could truly be in the "head" and not the "shoulder".

Most project managers take risk management and mitigation seriously.  It is expected that particularly known unknowns be evaluated, discussed and contingencies sketched out.  However, no one on the inside of a project is particularly talented about thinking outside of the box when it comes to looking for the large, nuclear projectiles that often take a project down.

Project managers will be well advised to have a trusted colleague in another discipline on the risk review committee.  The new eyes and ears can often expose a weakness in the project that would cause the unexpected event to home in on the project's brains or heart.  At least being aware of how to deflect the blow to a less vulnerable part of the project can protect both the project and project manager from a fatal blow.

In terms of survivability, project managers have to be alot like Jack Bauer -- cognizant of the high risk low probability events that can cause fatal damage, so that appropriate contingencies and actions can be thought of in advance.