By Robert Amoroso

I just read with some amusement and a bit of astonishment, a somewhat perplexing article by Senior Washington correspondent Carl M. Cannon. Astonishment in that  Mr. Cannon’s assertions, in which he outlines in his article, “Six Reasons Barack Obama is Still the Odds-on Favorite in 2012”, and perplexing, in that there’s still almost 3-years left of Obama’s first term as president, to even contemplate what the political landscape will like in 2012.

The article is nothing more then a litany of convoluted conclusions and wish-filled reasons, why Barack Obama should recapture the White House.

However, what seems apparent to me, if one reads between the lines, is that Mr. Cannon believes that the Obama presidency is in trouble, and that he’ll do everything he can to help in his reelection bid, which I assume (thinks in part to his article), has already begun.

None of his conclusions are based in fact, but rather on flawed assumptions, his article reads more like a narrative of seemingly random events that may or may not take place, that would eventually be the catalyst for propelling Obama back into the White House.  

Obviously, Mr. Cannon is an Obama disciple, and that’s fine, however for the most part the article is a conglomeration of far out assumptions and over simplifications, of what is actually taking place in America today. For example he targets conservative talk show host Glenn Beck, as a viable presidential candidate, by suggesting he might run for the presidency…really?

He goes on “It's hard from watching his television performances to know exactly what Glenn Beck is thinking half the time, but “Glenn Beck for President” stickers were all the rage at this year's CPAC meeting in Washington, and there's a Facebook page and even a petition of those who'd like to see the Fox showman enter the fray”.

He continues, by drawing extreme parallels between what is fact, and what he hopes may eventually transpire in 2012, he continues… “ So, yes, presidents are relevant, and the past century or so has shown us that they are more than twice as likely to be re-elected (Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush) than rejected after one term (Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush). Occasionally they are deemed a failure and the public tunes them out. That usually happens in the second term, not the first, and it has not yet happened to Barack Obama, who demonstrated as recently as the Feb. 25 health care summit that he can command any room of his fellow politicians, no matter how big the egos and ambitions around him”. 

He goes on and on in this rambling and at times simplistic speculation and tries to draw an analogy to past political trends and what he hopes will be the eventual outcome in 2012.

Nowhere in the article does Mr. Cannon address Obama’s performance or the countless missteps of his presidency, he seems to think that style over substance, is what will once again motivate young people, to vote for Obama.

Cannon’s positive spin and at times labored excuses, can best be described as an exercise in futility, as he outlines the healthcare reform issue and Obama’s chances of recapturing the white house. He continues,”health care reform legislation will either pass or it won't, and either way Obama will likely be better off on this issue than he is now. If it passes, by 2012 the public is likely to have learned to live with it -- and may discover it actually likes elements of the new law. If it is not enacted, the failure is no more likely to be the campaign's driving narrative than it was in 1996, two years after the Clinton plan went nowhere.”

I suspect Mr. Cannon is suffering from the same malady that is currently griping Washington…“tin ear syndrome”. If anything the elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, along with the thousands of town hall meetings held throughout the country, and the meteoric rise of the Tea Party movement, combined with plummeting poll numbers of both the Democratically Controlled Congress and the administration, should have cured any misunderstanding of what may lie ahead.

Obviously, 2012 is a long way off to make any predications, however 2010 isn’t, and I would imagine that once the dust settles in November…we’ll have a much clearer picture of  how Mr. Cannon’s wishful predictions, may play-out.