More on our potential future
by Franz L Kessler
Rated "G" by the Author.
edited: Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Posted: Tuesday, October 14, 2008
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Radical thinking has been proved right again in the current financial crisis - people who were able to think radically saw it coming, but the mainstream didn't buy in. In similar terms we might find ourselves soon in a profound ecological turmoil, but it may be too late to counter-act once everyone got the message, at last. Let's have a look into the abyss.
Until the 18th century, mankind did not have a systematic and profound impact on the ecological health of our planet, with perhaps a few exceptions (deforestation in Europe, China; accelerated desertification in Australia and the Sahara). Since then, things have changed.
From all available facts it appears that the majority of mankind is not contributing to the greater health of the planet, and has become a kind of mega-parasite, a species that respects only her short-term needs whilst ignoring long-term benefits for both the human species and the surrounding habitat.
This must and will have the following primary consequences (Phase I) with the characteristics of a downwards- spiraling trend:
· Degradation and loss of habitat for both mankind and symbiotic forms of life;
· Leading to a loss of “farmable land” (a composite of sustainable aquifer levels, soil preservation and soil productivity);
· Starvation of sources of animal protein, in particular fish;
· Human-generated unsuitable climate changes;
These will lead to the following secondary consequences (Phase II):
· Increased competition for resources – leading to conflicts, and warfare;
· Outbreak of new diseases (as a consequence of changes in climate);
· Collapse of finance following a break-down of economy;
· A general loss of culture and knowledge, and technology;
· Religion and philosophy, having become irrelevant, will disappear.
These will lead to the following tertiary consequences (Phase III):
· Mega-cities will be abandoned;
· The life-expectancy of mankind will drop dramatically;
· Ever less capacity to solve continuously increasing problems;
· Return of mankind to barbarism, anarchy and cannibalism;
· Decreasing birth rate;
· A collapse of human society.
These will lead to final consequences (Phase IV)
· The majority of mankind disappears;
· Nature will gradually heal and take over abandoned lands;
In a new cycle, small pockets of surviving humanity may be seen starting to re-colonize the world, and will possibly re-invent the wheel.
Right now, I see mankind and planet moving from Phase I to Phase II.
If current trends are not stopped and reversed (= crawling upwards back to Phase I) within the coming ten years perhaps, it will be a journey of no return.. As Phase II progresses, control will be lost, problems will simply become too big to be handled successfully, and no power on earth will be capable of solving them.
© 2008 by Franz L Kessler
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|Reviewed by Sara Coslett
The problem is that most people living in western nations haven't a clue as to what is happening in the over-populated regions that feel like they've already depleted all their natural resources, like arable land and fresh water.
But I am not willing to succumb to pessimism. I have faith in human ingenuity. I believe birth rates will start to decline in the next 50 years. I believe this because as national wealth rises, so does education. As education rises, birth rates decline due to one's awareness of the evils of consumption, superstition and ignorance.
People are thinking creatures. And we are cooperative. If we weren't we would never have been able to build civilizations. I think those two very human conditions will help us overcome any obstacles to the bright future.
Take care and be well, Franz.