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Blogs by Ken Aven
Super Tuesday - Final Notes
2/9/2008 7:14:11 AM
The African-American Vote -If the idea was once that Bill Clinton was the "first black president", that concept has now been put to death. With each new day, a greater and greater percentage of African-Americans are climbing aboard the Obama bandwagon bringing him millions of votes and millions of dollars. Nowhere will this be more evident than when the votes are tabulated next week in DC, Maryland, and Virginia.
The Latino Vote - At a slightly smaller percentage but still in impressive numbers, Latinos are coming out to throw a life preserver to Hillary Clinton and bring her victory in places like California and Arizona. Once again, this racial divide is being played up by the media. Instead of focusing on the admiration the Hispanic community has for the known quality of the Clintons, pundits are wondering out loud whether Latin voters would vote for an African-American. Conversely, you hear nothing about the racial pride (justifiably so) that is propelling so many African-Americans to abandon Clinton for a black male.
The money race - This is really a post Super Tuesday event. Obama, as we write, has raised around $7 million in just the past forty-eight hours. His coffers are running over. Hillary revealed her $5 million personal loan and the giving up of her campaign jet. If one just follows this financial aspect, all is doomed for Clinton and the race is virtually over. However, McCain was broke at one time, and now he is on the verge of capturing the GOP nod. If money was the end all, Ron Paul, would be a more credible candidate.
The next month - Obama is in the driver's seat for now. He is going to win the majority of February contests because of caucus states and the Potomac primaries (DC, MD, VA). However, if Clinton can tread water and pull in at least 40% of the delegates the race will still be very close. Then, if she has enough money for ads and has not lost all momentum she could rebound with at least three March 4th victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island. If the race lasts to that date, all eyes will be on Pennsylvania on April 22.
A last look at Florida (check out our Florida analysis posted on 1/30/08) - Once again, the votes in Florida have been a perfect predictor. Latinos, working class whites, women, and seniors for Clinton. The so called "upstream" whites, the youth, and the African-Americans for Obama. In most large states, where the African-American electorate is below 25% of the total vote, Clinton wins quite easily. If not totally rattled (which she may or may not be) Hillary and her staff should use Florida as the blueprint to victory. However, endorsements by Edwards and Al Gore for Obama, could be the final steps to an Obama victory.
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