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Blogs by Erik Hare
Soooper Tooosday!
2/1/2008 6:17:30 AM
One week ago, I wrote that it was Bill Clinton’s world and we were only livin’ in it. We haven’t seen him since. Granted, on that day, just about every pundit in the world weighed in on what the Hell was wrong with Bill, and after South Carolina most of Hillary’s people were ready to take action. But I like to think I had something to do with Bill finally getting leashed.
With that arrogance in mind, here is what I think of the top 4 candidates going into the Mega Tuesday Smackdown Showdown and Other Hyperbole. I will leave off Huckabee for now, if for no other reason than his ability to put a wrench in the works is far less impressive than I hoped. What I do think is possible, however, is that if a deadlocked convention here in Saint Paul becomes a possibility there will be a move to Huckabee by Christian Conservatives so that they can arrive as a block. I consider that to be a far outside possibility, so here’s where I think we are:
Barack Obama: He has incredible momentum going into the big event, big enough that the question is whether Tuesday comes quickly enough for Clinton. California long seemed out of his reach, but the last Rasmussen Poll had Clinton up by only 6 – with 12 for Edwards and 12 undecided. What’s more interesting is that consistently every state that has a primary approaching sees Obama numbers go up steady over their quiescent level a few weeks before. That either means people like him the more they see of him, or his field workers are excellent. Judging by what I’ve seen in Minnesota, it’s the latter. That means he wins big, which is even bigger when weighed against the expectations he had a month ago. I look for him to take the states he’s looking good in, which are Illinois and Georgia, but to be at least very close if not win California and probably take Massachusetts on the backs of the Kennedys. That makes the race for delegates damned even.
Hillary Clinton: Now that Bill seems to have been sent off on vacation, they have a chance again. However, her campaign still has a whiff of desperation to it, campaigning in Florida after pledging not to and making a big fuss about the delegates being nullified. I still don’t know what is causing this desperation, but I can’t help but think that they know something we don’t. My guess is that the Democratic race all along has been Clinton versus Not Clinton, and she’s the Clinton. If that’s the case, her tendency to max out at about 40% of the national polls suggests she loses a two person race. Democrats are facing a historic choice, and it’s energizing young people; Clinton’s main strategy seems to be to pull the race into a down and dirty contest that will suppress turnout. If she really goes that route, she’s done for. No matter what anyone says, we’ll know after Tuesday if she can win this.
John McCain: To be a Republican is, first and foremost, to be a team player. When Republican talk radio brands McCain as a “liberal”, what they mean is that he is a “maverick”. That comes off more positive than they’d like, so they stick with the harder label. But what they hate about him is that he hasn’t always been there when they want ‘im. Then again, they like to win, and they may just suck it up as they did in 1988 when they backed George HW Bush. McCain’s big issue has always been money, or the lack of it, but that may be changing already. The choice for Republicans is a hard one this year, with no clear “Contract with America” sense of direction guiding them. I think they grudgingly go with the one that can win, meaning that McCain pulls off a big win on Tuesday.
Mitt Romney: By far the weakest of all the candidates, Romney has a pre-packaged feel to him that is not particularly conservative or anything else. I’ve tried to find the convincing reason why people should vote for him, and he honestly hasn’t made it. For him, it’s a fight one state and one issue at a time, showing that it’s all about the fight. That means that people have to believe in him, and his backstory as the son of a Governor and Cabinet Secretary is pretty weak. Think of him dynastically as a Clinton or a Bush without the name recognition, and you can see he’s got nothing. He also is far behind in national polling against either Clinton or Obama. Republicans want to win, and Romney doesn’t look like a winner for the long haul; if they have to suck it up and vote for a not-so-true conservative, they might as well go with a winner. I think we’ll see that happen quickly as the “team” coalesces around the best shot they have.
That’s my take going into the big event. As always, your mileage may vary. Substantial penalty for early withdrawal (even if I did learn to appreciate Edwards as the real Son of the South, a gentleman and a team player). Tune in next week when I get to tell you why my predictions were grossly inadequate and blame them on faulty pollsters or some other handy whipping post. Hey, a pundit has to keep up his reputation!
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