What Is In Store for the World in the Next 20 years?
by Lonnie Hicks
Update: 7/11/13 The Present and Future Family
Update: 7/15/13 The Future of the 20 Somethings
Everyone wants to know what the future holds. Here I offer my ideas on the subject.
Here are a few hints as to what I'll discuss:
First we want to know what the variables and the knowns which will govern the next twenty years in the world.
Demographics will govern much of the future: Here are few parameters:
1. All of the Western World is aging. The rich don't have children. This means simultaneously an aging population, the end of native Western World populations, replaced by immigrants from all over the planet. This has been the pattern repeated over and over again in history.
It is the history of the United States as well.
Populations will shrink, not grow, or at least level off giving the planet a breathing spell to solve critical problems.
Young healthy people will be in great demand all over the planet.
The consequences of all this and the sequela is what the blog will identify. I'll go through the detail later.
See you then.
The first issue and the flip side of the problem is that with aging:
1. The Family is Impacted:
"The family is one of the fundamental building blocks of society. If you do not have strong families, you are not going to have a strong society. Unfortunately, the state of the family in America continues to deteriorate. The marriage rate has fallen to an all-time low, we lead the world in divorce, and about a third of all children live in a home without a father. Our young people have been taught that getting married and having a family is not a priority, and many of those that would like to get married and have children are not able to get the kinds of jobs that they need to support a family."
Startling Family Facts
Married Families are becoming a minority in the US
"100 years ago, 4.52 were living in the average U.S. household, but now the average U.S. household only consists of 2.59 people."
US has the highest number of one person households in the World
All time low birth rates
"Experts tell us that about 50 percent of all U.S. children will be on food stamps at some point before they reach the age of 18. Up to half a million American children are homeless even as you read this. And yet we continue to insist that we are the wealthiest nation in the world. Well, if we are so wealthy, then why are so many millions of our children suffering so desperately?
Part of the reason is because an increasing number of parents can't find work. According to a U.S. Labor Department report, the average duration of unemployment in the United States hit 34.4 weeks in May, which was a big increase from 33 weeks during April. To give you some perspective how incredibly bad that is, the average duration of unemployment was only 16.5 weeks in December 2007.
The truth is that when U.S. workers lose their jobs they are finding it exceedingly difficult to find new ones.
In fact, 45.9% of those currently unemployed in America have been out of work longer than six months. That is the highest percentage since the Labor Department began keeping track of this statistic back in 1948."
More later and what will be the impact on the future?
What is the future of the 20 somethings?
20 Somethings are the future and that future is being made by them now. What are they doing?
Note: 50% of Japanese young males never leave their rooms staying with their familes for years into their thirties.
Now what does it mean that our young people are behaving in these ways?
By their thirties they do the hiring in most companies and their experiences mean they don't hire the babyboomers for many reasons which we will go into later.
The most indebted generation ever. The Albatross Within?. Why all this debt?
Can't find a job, living at home, working as waitress and waiters and debt which can never be repaid.
So lets have a look at what we have above by way of an interium summary on the family. We have:
1. Most of the West-The US, all of Europe, Russia, China, Japan all have aging populations and are non-replicating in terms of population; These countries are currently depend upon immigrant labor to maintain their current life styles, or seriously imbalanced or under populated.
This also means that their aging populations are less and less productive and more and more dependent upon young immigrant populations for survival and to maintain their life styles. It also means more and more dependency upon government since living wage jobs are also disappearing.
Meantime the wealth of these societies is increasingly concentrated in the hands of an ever-shrinking minority of the super rich.
That is a powder keg situation and one which will likely end in turmoil, social upheaval, intermarrage trends and/or vast demographic changes.
2. Young whites are being sacrificed as well as the poor and the middle class to this increasingly powerful tiny monied class, desperate to hold on to power and money.
The young people are seeing their future where there is now and will be fewer and fewer jobs in the future, crippling debt, a generation without family experiences and supports, who have learned that their future depends upon toadying to corporations for jobs; who currently are working as "interns" for nothing in the millions, and no money and no benefits.
This is generation which will have to relocate to other countries for work which is already happening to other countries.
In the US when things have gotten like this in the past the US goes to war where the rich get richer off the war-the country going into more and more debt with war becoming a gigantic employment program for some and the rest become fodder in the conflagration that war is. So what to do?
Next time: Solutions
Now with a shrinking, less educated population, with no skills in one cohort and highly technical skills in another cohort, the obvious solution is to put the young people to work rebuilding the country.
See my blogs on Obama, and "America What has to be Done" both on this site.
Young people from all over the world can and will come here to the US if we simply pay them modest amounts is what could be seen as a domestic peace corp, maybe calling the project "Re-Building America." The young people, now unemployed, go to the small towns and rebuild them on a green basis. See my blogs on this site, mentioned above. I have cited them below for convenience.
Nine Things to Do to Re-Build America-Utlizing Youth.
What America Needs to Do to Survive: Right Now Solutions: What, When, Why and How Change Can Occur
Blog on Obama; Backgrounder- Media and Political Change
Utilizing the Eminent Domain Laws
The Big Bank Alternative and Family Banks--Doing Something About Wall Street-How to get it done.
How Non-Profits can help rebuild
Nationalizing the big banks
Dealing with National Politics: The Lessons learned from Occupy
The Generational Aspects
Whether we go in the postive directions identified above or decend into chaos is at the decision point.
What needs to be done in other parts of society?
Five things to do to end poverty world wide in twenty years.
Race is a critical factor in looking at the future.
The Zimmerman trial and what it might indicate for the future and needs to be discussed
The mind-set of juror B37-what it may mean for race relations now and twenty years from now.
What one poll says on the Zimmerman case
More later: Next up:
Race in America: What can be done?
The question on the table is how historically have societies solved racial problems? We take a look.
In looking at racism and trying to predict what will happen in the US and the world in the next twenty years is a daunting task.
What we what to focus on here is the historical experience with racism and how particular countries and societies have dealt with it.
In doing so we have the following questions in mind, and, from the answers derived thereto, predict the future. Ha. You see this is not going to be easy.
But easy is not what we do in these blogs so lets get started. Here are a few questions to keep in mind as we do the work of this in the next few days:
1 What is racism?
2. Whose problem is it to solve?
3. What have been the historical outcomes in societies which have struggled with it?
4. What are the institutional vs. the individual aspects of racism?
5. Who beneifts from racism?
6. Who loses?
7. Is there money in racism?
8. What are the preventatives: that is things we can do to root it out and or prevent it.
9. What is the pyschology of the racist and the racially oppressed.
10. Racism as opportunism.
11. Institutionals supports for racisms and examples of its enforcement by nation states.
12. Racial treatment as a self-fufilling prophecy.
13. Racism as a part of exploitation and colonialsm
14. Racism as a justification for violence and discrminnation.
15. Racism, slavery and profits
16. Racism immigration, jobs and power
17. Racism vs. Color Bias
18. Local bias and day to day experiences with racial attitudes
19. Race and Voting
20. What does the DNA evidence show about race?
20. Race and Political Power
A lot huh? Well, lets get started.
"Debates over the origins of racism often suffer from a lack of clarity over the term. Many conflate recent forms of racism with earlier forms of ethnic and national conflict. In most cases ethno-national conflict seems to owe to conflict over land and strategic resources. In some cases ethnicity and nationalism were harnessed to wars between great religious empires (for example, the Muslim Turks and the Catholic Austro-Hungarians). As Benedict Anderson has suggested in Imagined Communities, ethnic identity and ethno-nationalism became a source of conflict within such empires with the rise of print-capitalism.
In its modern form, racism evolved in tandem with European exploration and conquest of much of the rest of the world, and especially after Christopher Columbus reached the Americas. As new peoples were encountered, fought, and ultimately subdued, theories about “race” began to develop, and these helped many to justify the differences in position and treatment of people whom they categorized as belonging to different races (see Eric Wolf’s Europe and the People Without History).
Another possible source of racism is the misunderstanding of Charles Darwin’s theories of evolution. Some took Darwin’s theories to imply that since some “races” were more civilized, there must be a biological basis for the difference. At the same time they appealed to biological theories of moral and intellectual traits to justify racial oppression. There is a great deal of controversy about race and intelligence, in part because the concepts of both race and IQ are themselves controversial.
Some more background.
"World racism - Is racism an international issue?
"Racism is a matter of growing concern amongst the nations of the world. Far from being a social ill restricted to one or two countries, the moral disease of racism spans communities, countries, and continents. Racism is a complex issue. At the core of any working definition of racism is the unspoken ingredient of fear. People around the world all belong to the same human race; they share the same tendencies to fear, domination, and subjugation. Hence, inevitably, racism is a world-wide issue. Darwin’s controversial theory of evolution has contributed to the ignorance fueling racial conflicts. Over the years, peoples and nations exhibiting higher degrees of civilization have been deemed racially superior."
These are a few items to start with. You might want to add a few questions of our own.
After elucidating the problem we look at solutions. Yes, there are solutions despite what apologists might say.
Obama speaks on the Trayvon Martin Case.
McCain speaks out on Stand Your Ground Laws
Is the Trayvon case a conspiracy?
Staying in Touch
All the Tweets of Lonnie Hicks in one spot. Updated Daily
So what are some of the solutions or outcomes to racism evident in history?
By way of preview, outcomes historically have included outcomes both good and bad.
The good outcomes have been facilitated by:
1. Intermarriage, Cultural and Religious Meldiing
This is the likely dynamic which will eventually dominate outcomes in the US. When the so-called "races" interact (race is a myth) family and social ties overwhelm racial fears and animosities.
Personal racism one on one is rare. (Class is in really more important in the US than race, if you think about it)
Racism, too, is most rampant the less contact two groups have with one another.
This intermarriage factor has happened over and over again in history, used most effectively by the Romans and especially by Alexander the Great who forced his generals to marry into the royal families of the conquered peoples.
Intermarriage has long been used to end racial animosities as we see historically when daughters for centuries have been married off to rival kings and princes. There was a reason for this intermarriage tactic.
After all, Cleopatra was a Ptolemy decended from Alexander's General Ptolemy and is an important example of how race and cultural outcomes have really worked successfully in the past.
This was integration at the highest levels as well as lower levels. After the fall of the city of Rome much of the Roman army was not conquered but merely left their encampments, when not paid, and intermarried with local populations. This is part of the real history of Rome, seldom told.
The Romans had an empire based on force but also because they were smart in offering freedom and Roman citizenship and interrmariage to the millions conquered in their wars of conquest.
Rome was the most cosmopolitan city in the world for centuries, where Romans learned from other cultures and used trade and contact and diversity in a brilliant way to maintain their power.
America in the next twenty years will see more religious, racial, and cultural intermarriages and with any luck this cultural and demographic juggernaut will overcome senseless and antiquated racism.
Race and On-Line Dating
Cultural integration and religion intermarriages
These are outcomes and trends common in history and have occured over and over again from even a cursory look at history in many countries. Why textbooks don't teach this is obvious.
The real danger is that those opposed to these outcomes will seek to spark more animosity, even race war, rather that contemplate changes of that kind.
The fear of interrmarriage is at the heart of what those who would not like to see current trends expand or grow.
Bi-racial, bicultural people seek peace among the races, not wars. We have only to look to Barack Obama as a bi-racial president (not black mind you) to see the future of this country.
What are the interacial marriage trends in the US?
More solutions tomorrow
What have been other trends on the positive side that have resulted in the elimination or reductions in racial attitudes?
I will do an interium summary here and then go back for detail. But some of the short answers are:
1. Racism diminishes when minorities gain financial power and control jobs in important sectors of an economy. People care more about money than their own racism and, by the way, there are no race riots in the winter.
2.Racism diminishes when minorities or racialized groups gain political power and can disperse political goodies and money. Poof. Race seems to matter less.
3. Racisim diminishes when people have sustained close relationships where class matters more than skin color.
4. Racism diminishes when people go to war together
5. Racism diminishes as pointed out above when intermarriage, inter-religion, and intercultural contacts become widespread.
6. Racism diminishes when the nation-state sees profit or benefit from diminishing it, utilizing education, media and other aspects to commit to elimininating it.
7. Racism diminishes where citizens take responsibility for their own racial behaviors.
There are others which could be mentioned but let's, next time, go to examples of the above.
By way of a thought experiment, I should point out that every immigrant group was racialized when they first came to this country they being stimatized primarily to force them into low pay dirty jobs, for profit by the robber barrons.
1. The Irish (the "Black Irish" were, 300 years ago, considered to be sub-human)
2. The Italians were "dirty"
3. The Jews (still ongoing)
4. The Blacks (still ongoing)
5. The Indians (India, Indians)
6. The Indians (still ongoing)
7. Eastern Europeans
9. The Chinese
10. The Japanese
11. The Germans
12. The British
13. The French
14. Latin Americans
Long list huh?
Many of these folks went through Ellis island, saw the Statute of Liberty, which has an astounding story connected to slavery and connected to the Statute itself.
(See http://www.youtube.com watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T4tLaNeg9GA)
I could go on. But the interesting question is how were racial attitudes against these groups over-come (yes, some have not, but most have been overcome and in turnsadly, racialized new immigrants. All of them were taught to discriminate against blacks and ceased to being Europeans and became "white" a political designation that did not exist anywhere hitherto. Caucasion is a made of category to further racial goals. These Europeans in America bought into it for some very real reasons.
How did all this work? Refer to the list above and we get back tomorrow for the details.
Meantime the library is open.
Does more education mean less racism?
Racism is a cultural artifact?
Day to day Institutionalized Racism.
An important point to be made here is that racial attitudes are and were learned and not about race at all, since race is a political and cultural construction.
If powerful instutitions designate redheads as undesirable, lazy and dangerous, a country could in time come to discriminate against these redheads and use this stigma in competing for jobs, profits and even enslavement.
Thus, racism is culturally and politically enforced each and every day-because somebody is getting a great deal out of it and making money off of it.
This profit idea is the last I will look at today. Here's how the profit side works.
Redheads can be discriminated and I can make money off them and increase my profits if:
1. I can enslave them and/or empoverish them which morphs into free or low cost labor. An entire economy can be built off free or low and no cost labor with discrimination as the driver. China comes to mind.
2. In housing I can never repair Redhead housing and rent it at high prices and sell at high prices and maximizing profits by never repairing properties thereby driving down prices ultimately; and then come back and buy back those now low cost housing, gentrify the neighborhoods and make big profits because the poor redheads have been dislocated or priced out of the new high price neighborhood. Happens all the time all over the West.
3. Food profits can be maintained or made higher because the food companies know poor people are not mobile, especially as fuel prices rise, they ,therefore, shop locally and therefore I can give them low qualilty seconds and even tainted food and charge them even higher prices than in other more affluent neighborhoods. The poor redheads don't complain and even if they did no one cares or listens.
Food deserts happen as well.
4. In clothing, drugs, heath care, education, wages, insurances, mortgages, loans, media all have the same patterns. This is what is meant by institutionalized racism. It sticks, remains and grows, because institutions are making money and profits off of it and entire economies become and are dependent upon its continued existence, (The south anyone?)and cultural and racial silos become entrenched segregated communities and jobs come to be dependent upon maintaining these silos. Everyone, race, sex, class etc become dependent upon these patterns, one against the other, for their jobs. Segregation has become monetized.
In fact, it is clear that American society would likely collaspe into yet another recession-depression if this form of insititutionalized racism were to end suddenly. It is lodged in and is now seen as indespensible to American prosperity and life style. A day without a mexican and minorites working the low and no paying jobs, college kids working for nothing would have geniune economic consequences in this distorted American economy.
Yet this state of affairs can be broken and changed.
Now some have mentioned that racism can end badly. True.
Racism can end in genocide, race wars, religious wars, cultural wars, resources wars, and poverty and oppression by one group considering itself superior and bent on exterminating another deemed inferior.
History certainly provides us with numerious examples of these outcomes.
What is cynical about much of that history is that elites learned long ago that pitting one group against another, one "race" against another, one sex or gender against another, one class against another is an excellent way to divide and conquer and maintain domination over all of the groups in society. Indeed, I am thinking this is one of the dominant outcomes in history-one seldom, if ever, discussed.
So the story of racism not only often does not end well, but note, as well in its institutionalized forms, has been singlularly destructive, if not one of the most destructive forces in all of history, hence, the critical importance of addressing it as a critical issue.
In the United States, as in many many other countries, race is at once what is being exploited and also contested. We had a civil war over race, we had wars against indians over race, we racialized the Japanese and put them in interment camps, we racialized every single immigrant group to come to America, the latinos only the lastest; we enslaved Africans, colonized people of color all around the world, and in last forty years with the Southern Strategy of the South, the Republicans have created divisions over race as the unstated basis of America politcs. Race matters, however, only because America's prosperity is based upon race in so many fields from housing, to cheap labor, to race based media, to jobs--we could go on. If race discrimination were eliminated or even to seriously abated America would teter and have to find a new basis for society, economics and prosperity.
Through it all Americans have been blinded by a divide and rule tactic and have failed to see this is a deliberate startegy of the monied classes and only benefits them with so-called "white" masses seeing that they benefit go along. After all if the choice is go along with this state of affairs or lose one's job, or be ostracised, most have chosen the later while blinding themselves to the fact that this is what they have done and are currently doing.
Race and the battle of the ballot box
Department of Justice moves to block Texas new voting laws.
How white Americans are and have been harmed by racism. Brilliant video.
Zimmerman again in the news-Juror says:"He got away with murder."
This case will not go away. The media see it as ratings, profits and dividing the races to be benefit of elites.
Next we want to look at how economic and finance will affect the world in the next twenty years and my predictions. But first some background:
What will be the financial drivers in the world economy in the next twenty years?
But first we have to understand the present situation we find outselves in.
But first some parameters:
The statute of limitations and financial crimes"
The Global Middle Class leading world wide revolts?
Massive unemployment for 16-19 year old. It will be a long summer and maybe might create an Arab Spring for the US?
Getting access to a bank account may in the future may depend upon your credit score and bank history.
Massive Bee die off. Pesticides to blame. Food prices up?
The trillion dollar farm bill up in congress. Millions given to dead farmers
So in our focus on the future of the world in finance and economics we will identify initially three huge factors- Food, Fuel and the American middle class and the Chinese have been critical factors in world economic growth.
So where are these items currently? What kind of shape are they in?
Let's have a look and then delve into the implications of what we find.
The Global Food Crisis to get worse
The decline of the American Middle Class
The outline of basic energy costs and wall street speculators.
The situation in Europe
Read the charts
Here is a single summary paragraph and then we go to detail.
The world's yearly gross national product: (the value of all the goods and services produced by every country in the world)-equals 71 trillion dollars: the amount of debt in the world is a one thousand trillion.
This will never be repaid so what will happen in the next twenty years?
95% unemployment rate for black teens?
Now lets start to look at solutions for the future: First Housing
"But previous attempts to cut subsidies on fuel and basic food items in Egypt have not gone well. In 1977, such an effort led to bloody riots that resulted in 80 deaths before President Anwar Sadat cancelled the reforms. According to a recent World Bank/Gallup’s public opinion poll in the Middle East and North Africa, Egypt and Jordan were most likely to resist subsidy reforms compared to other countries. Six in 10 Egyptians did not point to an item that merited a subsidy cut. But subsidies in this North African country, particularly for fuel, are turning into a macroeconomic nightmare."
Notice the bias in this article. "Reform" is code for reducing these subsidies which has been caused by US and Wall Street speculators driving up the costs of food and fuel, cornering world markets, is the basic cause.
Bank speculators have also driven up world wide prices for seed, metals, food and fuel and had a hand in the Detroit bankruptcy all for its own private profit.
Fukushima will leak radioactive water into the Pacifica forever?
If the oceans become contaminated the future looks bleak. We will discuss this next
Fuel Subsidies in Eqypt
We now want to do an interium report on our prognosis on the next twenty years in the world. We will continue on thereafter.
Here are a few items we have already mentioned above.
1. Population and Demography:
Changes are inevitable and can end with intercultural, interracial, inter-religious marriages which can blunt if not prevent race, class, cultural and religious strife. That part is also inevitiable -given current trends.
Or it can trend toward oppression, wars, persecution, religious, racial and cultural and even civil war. (This is happening in countless countries today.)
We are also seeing a reaction to these trends currently where immigration is resisted; where racial anomosities are deliberately being fanned as the long dominant group see their hegemony challenged by the new comers, and where long-established segregation patterns are threatened.
Understand we are a segregated society, along class, "race" media, housing, schooling, everywhere, and fast becoming a two-class society, with no middle class.
This reaction, if mishandled, could put us into race wars, religious wars, and the like or even civil war. It has happened already in this country once (our Civil War) and in other countries as well. Let us hope that it does not happen again here in the US.
This pattern is happening, all well, all over the Western World. What is happening in the US is happening in Europe, France, Germany,Russia and to some extent in China as well.
But note a religious war between the so-called Christian World and the Muslim World would benefit the elites, the corporations, the police state apparatus and the politicians, all of whom would get rich and have an excuse to garner even more power to themselves, at our expense.
A hope in all of this is that the family will be re-created along multicultural lines because, if the downward spirial of the family can be halted, and reconstituted along multi-cultural lines, societies can be rebuilt from the bottom up and war mongers would not have an easy time rousing populations to hatred and fear.
Young people seem to be willing to mix, intermarry, and interrelate unlike their elders and therefore offer hope for the survival of the family in the future, in the next twenty years.
If this is prevented or blunted then we will have hoards of unsocialized, youth gangs roaming our cities and our country-side, no jobs, no families, angry, hungry and enraged that the elders have left them with no resources and no future.
This is the pattern in history sane people want to avoid.
The rich will barricade themselves behind, gated, guarded communities on islands in the Mediterranean (many have bought islands and fortified them) and try to wait things out while unleashing the military and police on the young hoards, or trying to co-op them and use them against everyone one else designated as the enemy (Jews, Blacks, Muslims, women, Latinos, take your pick.)
Think this is not likely? Read below:
Versions of this happened in Germany and countless other countries throughout history.
46 maps of the world--Just for fun and relief from heavy topics.
Now we have another look at the current basis for American prosperity and beyond that what will be the basis in the next twenty years,
Why does the stock market plummet when things improve for the 99 percent and rises when they improve for the 1 percent? Because their profits depend upon things staying bad for the 1 percent, the middle class and the poor.
"The Wall Street Journal reported this Thursday “Stock and bond prices tumbled after stronger-than-expected economic data …”
Why would good news about the economy cause the stock market to fall? The sentences continue: “… raised investor anxiety about a pullback next month in central-bank support for financial markets …”
The unspoken fact about the above is that 1 percent profits depend upon the continuation of a system which gives them for free 85 billion dollars a month, free money, countless tax breaks, taxpayer money, and low wages for the poor, the middle class and the young and immigrants. That is the true basis of the so-called American "prosperity" today.
Tomorrow we continue.
The economic future also depends to some extent upon birth rates and aging trends.
The dream of the technologists that human labor can, over time, be eliminated, not be needed and the few can run the world through machines they control is just a pipe dream; machines don't really think, and if a superconnected machine dominated world hits a snag like breakdown in the electrical grid, most of the planet could be thrown instantly back into the stone age.
The modern world from tv, to computers, to the military, to food production, to energy production is all electricity dependent.
One solar flare like that in 1989 which hit Canada and overnight we are into that scenario.
But more mundanely and assuming that does not happen we have the human factor, which will be dominated by birth rates in the West over the next twenty years and as mentioned aging trends.
Here is a beginning article on what is currently happening. We have a situation where the population growth rate will slow down and probably reverse if not flatten out.
The reason, the west is aging and the young don't have the money to start families.
This is what the Guardian refers to as the "Baby Recession." It is happening all over the West and the young can't start families and the aging are growing in numbers.
This means that cities will no longer be sustainable, where the tax base shrinks, where recession becomes permanent, where the consumer society becomes unsustainable, where the new minted middle class in many countries experience severe disappointments and like Arab spring food and fuel shortages or the cost of these items grow beyond the means of this new middle class, they will take to the streets, as they and are doing all over the middle east currently. This will spread to the West as well in time unless the problem is recognized and steps taken to avert this .
"In simple terms, a smaller population means a smaller potential tax base and, all things being equal, this implies that even when these economies return to 'full' employment, tax revenues will turn out to be less than were estimated before the recession started."
China as a example of an important aspect of the planet's future: it does not look good.
" Unless the world takes action, dynamics
such as these are likely to endure. Our recent
report indicates that unless crop yields
and productivity are substantially improved,
an additional 175 million to 220 million
hectares of cropland will be needed globally
by 2030 to satisfy increasing demand for
food, animal feed, and fuel (exhibit)."
Africa to produce the next boom after China. The smart money thinks so and here is why.
The PDF below is worth down loading and reading. The best out there on the African potential.
[PDF] Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African ...
|... With 60 percent of the world's uncultivated arable land and low crop yields,
Africa is ripe for a “green revolution” like the ones that have transformed ...
There are 40 other nuclear reactors just like Fukushima.
Add South Korea to the list of low birth rate nations.
Now we look at the high-aging countries
"As recently as 1992 it was predicted that there would be 7.17 billion people on Earth by 2010 instead of the actual 6.8 billion. In fact, the fertility rate has fallen by more than 40% since 1950."
"In China, the world's most-populous country, the number of working-age adults for each person 65 or older will shrink from 7.9 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2100. The ratio in India, the world's second-most-populous country, will decrease from 11.1 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2100.
The United States' ratio declines from 4.6 in 2010 to 1.8 by the end of the century. Other developed nations with low fertility rates show somewhat larger declines, including the Netherlands dropping from 4.0 to 1.6 and the United Kingdom dropping from 3.6 to 1.6 by century's end.
"The United States has more favorable numbers than other developed countries now, and will retain a slight advantage over other countries at the end of the century," Raftery said. He attributes the United States' relatively more-promising outlook to the country's higher levels of new births and to immigration."
While some population people predict massive population growth, I doubt it. Even if such growth occurs these studies assume that the mix of population metrics will remain the same in Europe and the West. Probably not. Growth will be mostly from Africa.
Through all this is the assumption that the world will need extraordinary talent in the next twenty years. How well equiped are we to recruit and hire this talent.?
Do hiring ideas and actual hires predict success? No, no correlation whatsoever.
The full version of the "I Have a Dream Speech" first time available in 50 years.
Colleges have billiions in endowments while students go further and further in debt.
And when these same students graduate what is waiting for them?
25 percent jobless rate among college grads-2011.
Birth rates in US in 2011
Federal Reserve Policies Effected by Aging Populations in the West
10 Ways in Which the Millennials are in trouble?
Inequality in the next 20 years?
We next turn to the question why so much inequality in societies, not only now but historically as well. Stratified or unequal societies predominate egalitarian societies. We see here in the United States where a relatively egalitarian society in the 60's has been replaced by the 1% 99% society.
We see how it happened but the question on the table is why has it persisted so often historically, in most societies; and what can be done about it?
Let's have a look. But first some background from the latest research.
Notice how the above articles eliminates the factor of war and military force imposing upon the poor obedience to the social order established by the rich. That factor is ignored. The poor are poor are because of this social order and more, the rich combine and spread the unequal social order accross societies, often cooperating. NSA comes to mind. There we see that elites around the globe cooperate with one another, and "are all in it together."
Next we look at what can be done to combat unequalizing trends, which I am taking here to mean, what can be do to promote the emergence of a middle class in societies.
The Curse of Unpaid Internships
We would be remiss if we did not look at technology in the next 20 years and examine them and do the plus and the minus on each.
Here are what has been proposed in this area.
9/30/13 Our first evalution
But first some preliminary ideas around these technologies and some criteria, I use, in evaluating them.
First, any new technology must be sustainable and not add to the planet's woes, add to our energy deficit. If not, that technology is just another fad, just another gadget.
Second, any new techonology must help bring back a viable middle class, if not it will be just another scheme, whereby the rich get richer, and these rich, use it against everyone else. That is not an outcome I personnaly seek or approve of.
Third, any new technology must have a future, a second act, susceptible of further development.
Now lets have a look at the first of these-
"OnLine Electric Vehicles (OLEV)
Wireless technology can now deliver electric power to moving vehicles. In next-generation electric cars, pick-up coil sets under the vehicle floor receive power remotely via an electromagnetic field broadcast from cables installed under the road. The current also charges an onboard battery used to power the vehicle when it is out of range. As electricity is supplied externally, these vehicles need only a fifth of the battery capacity of a standard electric car, and can achieve transmission efficiencies of over 80%. Online electric vehicles are currently undergoing road tests in Seoul, South Korea."
This idea has a major flaw, it requires enormous infrastructure costs and enormous amounts of generated electricity. Where will the money come from, what are the final real costs, to the consumer and to the environment and is in effect more of the same things we are doing wrong. What is the payoff? So we can read on our commutes in single passenger traffice and not have to worry about traffic?
Verdict: Not feasible, to expensive, and hurts the planet in the long run. Besides has anyone calculated the impact on the Earth Magneto-sphere of these new magnetic forces? No, probably not.
Thumbs down on this one.
"3-D printing and remote manufacturing
Three-dimensional printing allows the creation of solid structures from a digital computer file, potentially revolutionizing the economics of manufacturing if objects can be printed remotely in the home or office. The process involves layers of material being deposited on top of each other in to create free-standing structures from the bottom up. Blueprints from computer-aided design are sliced into cross-section for print templates, allowing virtually created objects to be used as models for “hard copies” made from plastics, metal alloys or other materials."
NASA to use 3-D printers in space
Evaluating the Future of 3-D printing
3-D printing carries with it the dream of Wall Street that it can find a way to totally eliminate the need for labor and thereby get richer. Is this feasible with the advent of 3-D printing?"
First, what is the buzz-buzz about 3-D?
First, some hold that it has the promise of:
1. Making tools for example directly from the printer through a layering process with spools of plastic. That is you don't need metal and your wrench can be made quickly right there at home with strong sturdy plastic. Cheaper, faster, and preservative of metals, and no factory, or worker needed.
2. Scaling up you could 3-D print an entire house, prefab with a difference, tanks, planes etc on the large scale. For those who did not see above, see these items on 3-D housing ideas and projects.
From: Aug 3rd entry above
Some see 3-D printing as the elimination of factories altogether and the end of American dependence on cheap Chinese factory goods.
Well, we ask what do we make of all this and the claims made?
First, we note that a 3-D printer must have materials to work with. The idea of trillions, non-biodegradible pieces of plastic rolling around ending up on the Pacific ocean, effectively killing that ocean, does not sound attractive. Nor does dumping it in land-fills around the world sound feasible and susaintable.
We need a way to recycle that amount of plastic and currently we do not-not to mention the toxic chemicals the printer and the manufacture of the special plastics would entail. We would simply be duplicating the toxic chemicals which are already a problem with computers, (computer by-products are very toxic and end up in the ground water and in land-fills in South America and China-not to mention the rare, scarce rare metals an I-Phone needs.
So no. This idea,on the one hand, does not meet our criteria stated above. A plastic wrench or tans component do not seem worth it.
The pre-fabricated house could be 3-D printed and is and has been, if you view the video above. But is this social need worth the costs to cutting more trees in the Amazon, more plastic pollutants and the like even though the social end-housing- is clearly needed.
The answer for 3-D printing therefore lies developing, non-toxic, environmental friendly, sustainable materials. What would those materials be?
We evaluate this one tomorrow.
Self Healing Materials. What is that?
One of the defining characteristics of living organisms is their inherent ability to repair physical damage. A growing trend in biomimicry is the creation of non-living structural materials that also have the capacity to heal themselves when cut, torn or cracked. Self-healing materials which can repair damage without external human intervention could give manufactured goods longer lifetimes and reduce the demand for raw materials, as well as improving the inherent safety of materials used in construction or to form the bodies of aircraft."
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The Increasing Diversity of America.
More on 3D printing, problems, promises, pros and cons.
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The Future and the War on the Poor.
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First, Who is De Blasio, and How He Won The Race.
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The Obstacles Ahead For De Blasio
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"Hard times + austerity = chaos
Ponticelli and Voth found that the countries in their European study have an average of 1.5 incidents of civil unrest per year. But during times where the government is implementing austerity policies, that number goes up. When those cuts reach 1 percent or more of GDP, the number of events goes up by a third compared to periods of expanding budgets."
Does race matter in hiring practices?