Even in January 2009, after much posturing from the European Commission following the shutting off of gas supplies through Ukraine, Prime Minister Putin was side-stepping the EU and holding private talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, and Italian energy giant ENI in Moscow. As recently as June 2009, Romania was seeking to develop its own bilateral energy partnership with the Kremlin, and Bulgaria's nuclear programme is inextricably tied to Russian state controlled energy companies.

At a two-day summit on May 21-22, in Khabarovsk, near the border with China, the EU and Russia failed to reach an agreement on an energy pact. Whilst Czech President Vaclav Klaus, whose country then held the EU Presidency, tried to put a positive spin on the failure, Medvedev expressed his satisfaction with the "strategic character of relations" between the EU and Russia.

Russia's worst case scenario is a Common European Energy Policy. Its 'Trojan horses' in the EU actively work against such a common policy, with Greece (which receives not only gas but also arms from Russia) and Cyprus (an off-shore haven for Russian-owned businesses) both refusing to support the unbundling of ownership of energy companies in Europe that would weaken Gazprom and other tools of Russian foreign policy. Vladimir Chizhov, Moscow's ambassador to the EU, and whose son Vasily was expelled from NATO headquarters in April 2009 for spying, stated in an interview with Capital magazine, "Bulgaria is in a good position to become our special partner, a sort of Trojan horse in the EU".

The EU is a post-modernist state. It evolved as an attempt to distance itself from traditional nationalism, and all the problems of the last century that stemmed from it. The post-modernist state does not emphasise sovereignty, it places no priority on balance of power and rejects the use of force as a means of resolving disputes. It actively seeks to evolve into a new form of polity, away from the traditional concept of the nation state. Russia, on the other hand, identifies with a 19th century concept of statehood.

Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, commented in The American Interest (Nov/Dec 2008) that "For Moscow, postmodernism is what vegetarianism is to cannibals: an irritating irrelevance." Russia sees the EU as a temporary phenomenon, destined to failure. The Russian policy of striking bilateral agreements with EU member states is not just one of divide and conquer; the Kremlin quite simply does not think the project will stay the course. Russian observers point at the Commission's inability to sell the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty to the people as just one sign of the weakness inherent in the entire project.

The benefits of a common energy policy are clear: how to achieve it is not so clear at present, but it must surely be the number one priority for the incoming Commission and Parliament.