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Franz L Kessler

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Where Will The Next Tsunami Hit?
by Franz L Kessler   
Rated "G" by the Author.
     
Last edited: Sunday, February 11, 2007
Posted: Friday, December 31, 2004

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This picture shows the 1755 tsunami of Lisabon. The preceding earth quake was so strong, that it could be felt throughout Europe. Even micro-tsunamis were reported from sub-alpine lakes. The Lisabon quake/tsunami destroyed a flourishing city, and damaged profoundly one of the leading western nations. Tsunamis are, together with massive volcano eruptions and hurricanes, spontaneous events that can cause massive destruction on a regional scale. Tsunamis are caused by strong earthquakes, sub aqueous landslides, volcanic eruptions, asteroid impact or a combination of the mentioned. This article ponders about the trigger mechanism for tsunamis, and which areas need to be watched in particular.

The world is stunned by the incredible pictures of misery and grief, hitting areas of our planet which were among world's most beautiful landscapes. It brings reality to our mind that violent change is part of our planet. Wherever tectonic plates are compressed, there is danger of earth quakes. One can compare it to an armed gun: the bullet is loaded, and the spring is being squeezed. A gentle touch on the trigger - spontaneous energy is released. Some plate margins are associated with active volcanism and violent earth quakes. Other compressive plate margins are perceived to be calm, or dormant. Tsunamis form when sudden changes of the ocean’s geometry occur. These are:




  • Earth quakes (sea quakes) deep under the ocean. The crust buried under the ocean is often a lot thinner than continental crust and can react with high elasticity. Compression (strike-slip or subduction) along plate margins builds up stress over time. For many years, this stress is absorbed by the rock until a critical point is reached: the rock spontaneously ruptures. I have seen many examples of razor-sharp faults with vertical escarpments on the continental margins of the Atlantic. Earth quakes can cause a spontaneous movement of the sea floor. Like a whip, the surface of the ocean floor bounces upwards and displaces several cubic kilometers of waters in a fraction of a second. The kinetic energy released travels through the ocean, until it hits a nearby or distant shore.




  • Subsea landslides. Along both compressive and passive margins sediments accumulate, sometimes forming cushions that are several kilometers thick. The city of New Orleans, for example, is built on a very thick sediment wedge, that originated from deposits carried by the Mississippi River. Very often, these sediments are poorly lithified, and can slide towards the ocean floor, to form (turbulent flow)= turbidite currents. Deltas do collapse at times. The Congo Delta, for example, spontaneously collapsed at the Miocene/Pliocene time boundary, some 6 million years ago and for unknown reasons. The Agadir Canyon in Morocco is an equally young incision feature, possibly caused by a super-strong earth quake. Its associated turbidite fan reaches far out into the open ocean. Some sub-sea landslides can be triggered by earth quakes, others or spontaneous release of methane from the sediment. The sliding avalanche forms a turbulent, and often high-density flow. Ahead of a turbidite flow, water is compressed and displaced on a massive scale. This can trigger a different kind of tsunami, although it is not very well known what amount of damage this may cause.




  • Volcanic eruptions. During volcanic eruptions, the volcano’s rock vibrates and can easily form fractures. Water can penetrate these fractures, and reach areas of hot rock creating overheated, and highly pressurized steam. Several volcanoes at the Indian plate margin have exploded that way – Krakatoa and Tabora are examples that occurred fairly recently, in geologic terms. Some volcanoes are formed by walls of unconsolidated sediments. These become unstable at times and can cause massive landslides, at times.

Which areas of the world might become particularly tsunami-prone in the near future?





  • The Pacific Ocean is the classic terrain of tsunamis. Surrounded by compressive margins with active subduction and strike-slip (lateral movement fault) zones, the Pacific is quivering with seismic life. An area of particular concern is the Pacific Plate Boundary, which reaches from Northern California to Alaska. Recent studies seem to indicate, that stress has been building up along this margin for several hundreds of years, and that a strong sea quake is overdue. Tsunamis could potentially have serious consequences even in remote areas - I wonder what would happen if a strong tsunami would hit the Antartic shelf ice. Massice slabs of ice might become unstable, detach itself from the bedrock, and float into the ocean, leading to a sudden seal level rise.


  • The eastern Indian Ocean. The spectacular earth quake witnessed on Dec 26 may have shifted the ocean floor by several tenths of meters. This means, as the examples in California and Turkey have shown, that compressive energy is shifted farther up along the plate margin. Strong earth quakes, with associated tsunamis, will occur along the Andaman and Nicobar margin, but it might take several years, or hundreds of years before the next huge earth quake is due. A tsunami in the Bay of Bengal could endanger millions of people living in the densely populated Ganges Delta area.



  • The Atlantic margins. Two volcanoes of the Canary Island group appear to have unconsolidated and highly unstable flanks, that could yield massive landslides. Cities such as Casablanca, New York, Miami or even Rio de Janeiro could be threatened by tsunamis, if these volcanoes were to collapse into the Atlantic Ocean.


  • The Southern Mediterranean. Coastal areas, in particular Algeria, have seen many violent earth quakes in recent history. Areas of the huge Nile Delta might prove unstable- several recent fault escarpments are seen on the sea floor. A tsunami originating along the North African margin could endanger dense populated areas both along the North African and the Italian/Greek coast lines.

  • The Texan and Louisiana Gulf coast. Massive submarine landslides have occurred along this margin throughout the Tertiary, given the accumulation of massive, unstable sediments deposited at the mouth of the Mississippi River. A big, submarine landslide might cause a tsunami with the potential of hurting coastal cities such as New Orleans, or Galveston.

What can be done to prevent tsunamis? Nothing! Tsunamis do happen. Improved tsunami warning systems, however, could help evacuate some areas before the tsunami strikes. It makes sense when a targeted coastline is located several hours away from the tsunami's origin. Alerting the population early enough can help the evacuation of people from the vulnerable coastlines to the safety of higher grounds. Areas located close to an epicenter such as the 26 December Aceh, however, are doomed and will be doomed in future events – there won't simply be enough time to alert the coastal population.





The author holds a PHD in sedimentology and has worked 20 years in the oil and gas exploration business. He has been teaching deepwater geology courses in Australia, Norway and Egypt.



© 2005 by Franz L Kessler






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Reviewed by Y B (Reader)
Reviewed on July 30, 2006
I think it should hit USA because it nearly always hit america.

Reviewed on January 11, 2005
Franz,

Thanks for this exceptional and very informative write ... maybe the mid-Atlantic states?

Best wishes,

Robert

Reviewed by Regina Pounds
Reviewed on January 4, 2005
Thanks for this very interesting article, Franz. Mother Nature will have her way. We're but specks....

Gina

Reviewed by Judy Lloyd (Reader)
Reviewed on December 31, 2004
Thank and last night I watched the documentary on the History channel about the Canary Islands will could go at any day. This means that the United States very well could be next.

Reviewed by Mr. Ed
Reviewed on December 31, 2004
Thanks for sharing your tsunami knowledge with us, Franz. The more information we have, the better. I also was surprised to learn that although the US has a Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific, there is no such system in the Atlantic. Countries in the Indian Ocean were chided for not having a warning system in place, yet our entire east coast would be in a similar situation if a tsunami occurred in the Atlantic.

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