Take Cover: The New Goths are Coming

Take Cover: The New Goths are Coming http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2220267,00.htmlPeter Almond Our world will crumble by 2018

ONE of Britain’s most senior military strategists has warned that western civilisation faces a threat on a par with the barbarian invasions that destroyed the Roman empire. In an apocalyptic vision of security dangers, Rear Admiral Chris Parry said future migrations would be comparable to the Goths and Vandals while north African pirates could be attacking yachts and beaches in the Mediterranean within 10 years. Europe, including Britain, could be undermined by growing immigrant communities with little allegiance to their host countries — a “reverse colonisation” as Parry described it. These groups would remain closely connected to their homelands through the internet and cheap flights. The idea of assimilation was becoming redundant, he said. The bleak warnings by Parry were delivered to senior officers and industry experts at a conference last week. Parry, head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the coming decades. If a security breakdown occurred, he said, it was likely to be brought on by environmental destruction and a population explosion, coupled with modern technology and radical Islam. The result for Britain and Europe, Parry warned, could be “like the 5th century Roman empire facing the Goths and the Vandals”. Parry pointed to the wave of mass migration that disaster in the Third World could unleash. “The diaspora issue is one of my biggest current concerns,” he said. “Globalisation makes assimilation seem redundant and old-fashioned . . . [the process] acts as a sort of reverse colonisation, where groups of people are self-contained, going back and forth between their countries, exploiting sophisticated networks and using instant communication on phones and the internet. Under the surface we don’t know a lot about what’s going on.” The direct effects of Third World instability would soon lick at the edges of the western world as pirate gangs mounted smash-and-grab raids on holidaymakers. “At some time in the next 10 years it may not be safe to sail a yacht between Gibraltar and Malta,” said the admiral. Parry, 52, an Oxford graduate who was mentioned in dispatches in the Falklands war, is not claiming all the threats he identifies will come to fruition. He is warning, however, of what is likely to happen based on current trends if the dangers are not addressed by politicians. Parry — who used the slogan “old dog, new tricks” when he commanded the assault ship HMS Fearless — believes western countries will have little use for large-scale, low-technology forces in responding to the new threats. Instead, he foresees wholesale moves towards robots, drones, nanotechnology, lasers, microwave weapons, space-based systems and even “customised” nuclear and neutron bombs. Lord Boyce, the former chief of the defence staff, welcomed Parry’s analysis. “Bringing it together in this way shows that we have some very serious challenges ahead,” he said. “The real problem is getting them taken seriously at the top of the government.” Ancient Rome has been a subject of serious public discussion this year. Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP and journalist, produced a book and television series drawing parallels between the European Union and the Roman empire. Terry Jones, the former Monty Python star, has presented a series on the barbarian tribes. Parry, based in Shrivenham, Wiltshire, presented his vision of world security over the next 30 years at the Royal United Services Institute in central London. He identified the most dangerous flashpoints by overlaying maps showing the regions most threatened by factors such as agricultural decline, booming youth populations, water shortages, rising sea levels and radical Islam. After combining these elements, Parry predicts that as flood or starvation strikes, the most dangerous zones will be Africa, particularly the northern half; most of the Middle East and central Asia as far as northern China; a strip from Nepal to Indonesia; and perhaps eastern China. He pinpoints 2012 to 2018 as the time when the current power structure of the world, much of which dates from the second world war, is likely to crumble. Rising nations such as China, India, Brazil and Iran will start to topple America as the world’s only superpower. This will come as the power of “irregular activity” such as terrorism, organised crime and “white companies” of mercenaries burgeons in lawless areas at the expense of conventional forces. The effects will be magnified as borders become more porous and some of the most vulnerable areas sink beyond effective government control. Criminals and guerrillas may then spread the danger beyond these areas. Much of Parry’s analysis is based on forecasts and statistics drawn up by universities and international organisations. The world population is expected to grow to about 8.4 billion in 2035, compared with 6.4 billion today. By then, some 68% of the population will be urban, with some of the biggest metropolises, particularly in poorer countries, becoming in effect ungovernable. He warns that Mexico City could be an early example of this. In an effort to control population growth, some countries may be tempted to copy China’s “one child” policy. This, with the widespread preference for male children, could lead to a ratio of boys to girls of as much as 150 to 100 in some countries. This will produce dangerous surpluses of young men with few economic prospects and no female company. “When you combine the lower prospects for communal life with macho youth and economic deprivation you tend to get trouble, typified by gangs and organised criminal activity,” said Parry. “When one thinks of 20,000 so-called jihadists currently fly-papered in Iraq, one shudders to think where they might go next. Will they look further afield for employment?” The bloodiest result of the competition for resources, Parry argues, may be a return to “industrial warfare” as countries with large, growing male populations mobilise armies, even including cavalry, while acquiring computerised warfare technology from the West. The mass population movements set in train by these disasters, Parry argues, could lead to the “Rome scenario”. The western Roman empire collapsed in the 4th and 5th centuries under repeated blows from groups such as Ostrogoths, Visigoths, Suevi, Huns and Vandals surging over its borders. The process culminated in the sack of Rome in 455 by Genseric the Lame, king of the Alans and Vandals, in an invasion from north Africa. Parry said he was not labelling any particular group as threatening stability, but estimated at the conference that there were already more than 70 diaspora groups in Britain. A report last week by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that to integrate immigrants was becoming increasingly difficult. It also found that Britain had become Europe’s leading destination for immigrants, taking 494,000 people in 2004. There are already large numbers of African migrants trying to reach Europe. The EU has warned that up to 80,000 west Africans are poised to migrate illegally to Europe. In the future, Parry believes, large groups that become established in Britain and Europe may develop “communities of interest” with unstable or anti-western regions, in effect creating a state within a state. He warned that any technological advantage developed by the West to deal with the future threats was unlikely to last long. “I don’t think we can win in cyberspace; it’s like the weather, but we need to have a raincoat and an umbrella to deal with the effects,” he said. With the West’s military advantage reduced, most solutions to the threats Parry identifies will have to be political.