As a teacher, I have often been asked by students how I see the future. They wanted to know and rightfully so what the future might hold for them.
One thing that I have learned about myself is that on some level I as well as many others can sense trends by simply drawing conclusions about what we observe. By keeping our eyes open and seeing what is really going on.
For example, in my last novel, The Prisoner’s Dilemma, I discussed what the outcomes of corporate personhood were. Some of those outcomes were the production of unlimited money to buy elections and spread influence.
A few months after publication, the Supreme Court issued the Citizens United Decision allowing corporations in the name of free speech to spend unlimited amounts of cash. A result that was easily foreseen by many.
So I have been thinking and refining my conclusions and there is good and bad news. I am making the following predictions. First, the bad news:
The end of capitalism in 20-30 years
Capitalism will destroy itself because It contains the seeds of its own self destruction. It continually outsources jobs: it replaces workers with technology and it drives masses of workers from the middle class.
It’s really common sense. When the working poor can hardly afford the next meal or a place to stay, who is able to buy washing machines, cars or TVs?
Capitalism by its very structure demands an impoverished population. Somebody has to clean the toilets. And it’s not going to be the one percent. Although even these jobs may be obsolete soon. I recently read that Walmart is experimenting with robots to do the cleaning. Amazon is experimenting with drone delivery.
Increasing inequality
One way of thinking about inequality is to study the Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient (named after Corrado Gini) is a way of comparing how distribution of income in a society compares with a similar society in which everyone earned exactly the same amount.
Inequality on the Gini scale is measured between 0, where everybody’s income is equal, and 1, where all the country's income is earned by a single person. It has been said that no country has had stability and lasted very long when the Gini coefficient measures .5 or above.
According to the World Bank the five countries with the lowest inequality have a Gini score of .25 to .26. They are: Ukraine, Slovenia, Norway, Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic.
The five highest countries with the most inequality are: Central African Republic, Botswana, Haiti, Namibia, and South Africa. Their Gini scores rang from .58 to .65. Remembering that the Gini score measures the amount of inequality in a country and that rarely do countries survive when the score is higher than .5 we can expect social disruption and revolutions in these countries with their higher scores.
What is the current Gini score for the US? In the mid 1970s the score was .406. Since 2000 the score rose to .486. This was before taxes and transfers. We are rapidly approaching the .5 score after which only few societies survive.
Another source claims that the Gini score for the United States has risen from .346 in 1980 to .415 in 2016. Remember that the higher the score, the higher the inequality. Conversely, the lower the score the lower the inequality.
Unrest will increase.
With inequality increasing, social unrest will increase possibly leading to civil war. Millions will take to the streets carrying the proverbial pitchforks. There may be general strikes, civil disobedience and a variety of other tactics.
Also if the midterm elections are seen as rigged either through gerrymandering, voter suppression, Russian intervention, or some other means the government will be seen as illegitimate.
This will result in government martial law and a variety of other tactics which will be ultimately be unsuccessful. The end result could be a fascist government.
That’s the bad news. Now for the good news:
We shall overcome this.
We will in the end make it through this but first have a series of trials to endure. We will come out stronger, wiser and more resilient.
We as a people have survived two world wars, a massive depression, a civil war as well as several depressions. We will survive this.
People are changing
We as a nation and as a people are learning to become more outspoken and more willing to stand up for our rights. Recently, I was discussing with one of my classes the Millgram experiment on authority, the one where the subjects of the experiment thought they were giving electrical shocks to others because an authority told them to do so. Several of my students replied that while that may have been true back then, today more and more youth are speaking out and that today’s world is different.
That night I reflected on the class’s response and I sent the following email to my class:
Feedback on last night’s class.
I’ve been thinking about some of your feedback during our discussion on Milgram’s obedience studies. Upon thinking about it, I think you were right when you commented that today people were not as willing to tolerate authority as they were when Milgram did his research.
At least I hope you are right. If so it will be a refreshing change for hope. I see that many are more willing to express their resistance to what is going on. There are innumerable protests almost weekly across the country.
There was a saying shortly after WWII that went like this:
First they came for the socialists and I said nothing because I wasn’t a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists and I said nothing because I wasn’t a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews and I said nothing because I wasn’t a Jew.
When they came for me, there was no one left to say anything.
I went to a protest recently and someone held a sign that read:
First, they came for the Muslims and we said, “Not this time!”
So I think your points are well taken. Good work!
Mel
We don’t have to become a fascist society
We have a choice; we can become more egalitarian. The American people have always been the kindest and most generous people in the world. But this is when we do not give into fear. We have depths of courage and strength that most of us are unaware of. God help those that cross us, but we believe in a nation of laws. But only when we don’t give into fear.
Authoritarians always know how to play the fear card, but we are learning to recognize that card and how to discard it. If we give into fear, we shall become a fascist society. If we learn to recognize that fear and overcome it we can become the egalitarian society we have always dreamed. We shall have achieved the American Dream.
well said
never stop writing
m
I want to thank you for educating me on the Gini coefficient. For some reason, I hadn't heard of it, but firmly believe that income inequality was always a recipe for the failure of civilization and/or almost any organization. There is always the "S" curve that most organizations and civilizations go through. To stop the decline that always occurs after the peak of growth, innovation or intervention must take place to continue that growth, not impede it.
While I remain optimistic about the future like Michio Kaku, I can see many of us going through a very painful transition that may be worse than the Great Depression when faced with global warming and overpopulation combined. Being among the 1% may become increasingly vulnerable like the rest of the perils of our own making.
Ron