[image: eig.org]
New Study Reveals More Economic Troubles Ahead
I have noted in many articles and essays that the fundamental cause of our economic problems today can be isolated to this source: Too much new money is flowing into large corporations where savings occur, and too little new money is flowing to small businesses and individuals where spending occurs. That observation may sound very arcane, so I will elaborate on it in this essay with new information from an independent study and source.
The two uses for money (spending and saving) are normal and complementary when done within the constraints of our needs and economic efficiency, but they result in grossly excessive wealth and grossly excessive poverty when left unchecked. It is the second outcome based on excesses that has given us virtually all of the wealth and income inequality issues that we have today. They can all be reduced to this: The rich are getting richer, while the poor are getting poorer. The present gap is far worse than almost everyone believes. Moreover, these same trends, when projected into the coming years, must ultimately lead to a social and economic collapse of catastrophic dimensions. The lead time needed to correct matters in a humane way has come and gone. We are now in an emergency phase when we must act, or suffer the consequences that nobody wants. These outcomes are not limited to the U.S. economy and to all of its residents; they apply to the entire industrialized world and to all who reside therein. A recent NASA supported study also shows that industrial civilization is on an irreversible path to destruction due to inequality of resource allocation.
The great bulk of our economic activity is based on spending. In order for a free market to flourish, we must first have consumers who purchase its goods and services. It is from spending that we derive profits, and employment, and incomes, and taxes, and general prosperity. In contrast saving gives us personal security, a “piece of the pie” that is so necessary to our future needs. Too much saving, however, leads to too little spending, and this condition will result in too little GDP, too little new employment, too little incomes, too little taxes, and the need for more government, to budget deficits, to a weak dollar in international trade.
The new data in support of all the preceding warnings comes to us from the Economic Innovation Group, a private organization located in Silicon Valley. Their study reveals that the majority of all new business expansions in the U.S. occurred in just 20 counties, located in primarily in CA, TX, NY, and FL. Put another way, 98 percent of U.S. residents have not shared in the business expansions since 2010. These findings are consistent with the new money flows into the largest corporations. They conclude:
The new map of growth and recovery points to very different futures for American communities. These findings suggest that the gains from growth have and will continue to consolidate in the largest and most dynamic counties and leave other areas searching for their place in the emerging economic landscape. While many will benefit, the new map also calls for a new toolkit for ensuring broad access to opportunity and helping both people and places realize their economic potential. [1]
The Problem. The Federal Reserve makes new money available to banks on the hope that banks will borrow that money and lend it out to individuals and to small businesses. That is how money gets into circulation where spending occurs. Every dollar in circulation results in 6 dollars of GDP. And GDP produces jobs, incomes, tax revenues, and a small amount of savings and investments. This money is known as M1 (currency plus checking accounts). It is the source of all our economic activity.
Since about 2008 banks have put most new money into M2 – M1, or savings mainly by banks and by large corporations. This money produces no GDP, no jobs, no growth, and very little tax revenues. That money flows into the accounts of the wealthy who direct it into real estate, stocks, bonds, and commodities. As a result their wealth increases dramatically, while the economy languishes, unemployment increases, tax revenues fall, and budget deficits increase. Social ills also get worse (crime rates, incarcerations, suicides, drug usage, mental health issues, teen pregnancies, and others), Most of the new money created by the Fed and made available to banks got directed into M2 – M1 by our major banks, thus increasing the wealth of the very wealthy, while denying jobs and incomes to everyone else.
Needed. The Federal Reserve cannot direct that new money it creates and lends out to banks gets into the hands of small business and individuals where it can help the economy. They must rely on banks to let some of it “trickle down” to those who create economic activity. After all, 100 percent of all economic growth comes from spending--from consumers (70 percent), from the government (20 percent), and from corporate profits (10 percent, which also comes from spending. The Fed needs an amendment to its charter that compels them to direct, monitor, and control how much new money gets into spending (M1), and how much gets into saving (M2 – M1).
I sent this very same recommendation to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. The Fed’s reply “it is being forwarded internally.”
Summary. The ultimate measure of any nation’s economic activity is found in the net worth of its residents. The U.S has $87 trillion of net worth, and $80 trillion of that is owned by the top 10 percent. The next 40 percent (the middle class) owns the other $7 trillion. The bottom 50 percent have no net worth at all. In 50 years, at current growth rates, the top 10 percent will own $2.5 quadrillion while the bottom 50 percent still will have none. Anyone who believes those projections cannot happen, simply does not want to believe in arithmetic and the historical record of the past 50 years. Economic policy needs to be based on facts, not on beliefs.
[1] The New Map of Economic Growth and Recovery, Innovation Group, May 2016.
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"Forwarding internally" may be a good thing if the article is read by the receivers. Unfortunately the Fed is in bed with the big banks through the revolving door, and in less that can be stopped, the "yes men" will continue to rule the roost
Going back to the editor and increasing the size of text will make it a bit easier to read. I don't have difficulty, but many people will.
Ron
Love ya!
Jane