A Worst Case Scenario:
Trump Wins; Conservatives Retain Control of both Houses
This is not an exercise in guesswork or surmise. While the final outcome may be unclear, the pathway in getting there is not. With control of Congress and the White House, control of the judicial branch of government would be inevitable. One of the first orders of business for Trump and the Senate would be to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court that the heretofore obstructionists denied to Barack Obama. And with all three branches of government tucked safely away in the columns of conservative ideology, the vision of freedom once held so dearly by patriots would vanish along with the experiment in democracy envisioned by our Founding Fathers. The American Dream would be replaced by the American Nightmare.
Tax cuts to the wealthy would be high on their agenda. Whether proposed by Trump or by those within the Congress, they would pass into law in record time surrounded by their euphoric predictions of economic prosperity for all.
And then reality would set in. There would be an equal and corresponding budget deficit for every tax dollar denied the Treasury. That is because tax cuts to the wealthy would leave the rich and powerful’s money where it already is located—in stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. These are personal assets, recorded on the positive side of individual net worth statements; they do nothing additional at all for the economy. There would be no new jobs, no hiring, and no boosts to incomes. On the contrary, the economy would sputter as production stalled, profits fell, and consumers withheld their spending. Soon the sputtering would steepen into a sharp decline as consumers tightened their belts more and the economy fell into a recession. You and I know that consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of our national output. Conservatives, on the other hand, believe that spending is the problem—a liberal evil invented by John Maynard Keynes.
Trump and his advisers would blame this new calamity on Obama and his profligate spending programs. And in like manner, they would call for dramatic cuts in government spending to balance the budget and to restore the economy. They would enact legislation with cuts to all government spending programs including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, aid to the disabled and dependent children, in food stamps, unemployment insurance, and education.
But you and I know that government spending accounts for 20 percent of our GDP, thus cuts in government spending would sink the economy deeper into a severe recession. Both the poor and the middle class would feel the cuts with knife-like certainty. At a time when they needed help the most, the government would not be there to provide it. The numbers of hungry and the homeless would burgeon, foreclosures and bankruptcies would soar, and a very dark Depression would envelope the land.
The conservative ideologues would have no explanation other than to shout “Obama did it!” So they would resort to Plan B: More tax cuts to the wealthy.
Soon even the soup lines that rely on donations would run out of soup to give away. The hungry and the homeless would become so common place they would number in the millions. Entire families would venture out across the country in search of food and work just like they did in the 1930s. Crime rates would skyrocket as the most basic human needs were no longer being met. Thefts and murders would soar, as personal security disappeared. We would no longer be safe from each other, to say nothing about the government.
Meanwhile, the foreign trade that candidate Trump trumpeted so loudly as his personal domain of expertise would plummet. Conservatives would then resort to Plan C: Freeze all imports. The champion of the “art of the deal” would have his way to save the day.
But with no exports or imports, and the economy in a Depression, no country would want to deal with him, or to hold dollars at all. The dollar’s exchange rate would fall like a lead balloon.
From there the outcome becomes very hazy. Would the great 98 percent of us be too hungry, too tired, and too weak to mount a last ditch effort to overrun Washington D.C. and storm the halls of Congress and the White House? Would the police and our Armed Forces lead the charge with us, or would they become the Guardians of Last Resort, and the final line of defense against their brothers and sisters, their parents, and their children?
These are questions that might better be asked of China and her leaders. Would they meet with any resistance at all as their troops arrived in swarms to offer the tired, the poor, and the tempest tos't of our teeming shores a bowl of rice as the new price for domination? Would the freedom to die of starvation have more value than a bowl of rice?
Who knows? But at least we would know that all the bad outcomes would be Obama’s fault. That’s because it is written and recorded in the Book of Stupid, in the chapter entitled “Propaganda and Other BS” right there in the conservative bible.
Oh, did I mention November 2016? Elections have consequences.
One thing that you didn't mention is that when despair grows, guns will be readily available to the masses. I can see that hungry and homeless people will be carrying firearms for both their own protection and for getting what they will absolutely need to survive. The rich will decry their violence and send military squads in to wipe them out.
The right people are already walling themselves off in ideal Trump gated communities with their children going to private schools and only associating with those of their own social circles. A two-tier society like exists in South and Central America is rapidly forming.
And, unfortunately, many of those backing the top-tier are already in the lower tier and don't even know it.
Ron
Love ya!
Jane