Elections Have Consequences
I haven’t seen an economic plan from President-elect Trump, but with both houses of Congress in the hands of conservatives, and being familiar with their ignorance of the connection between causes and effects, here is their likely agenda and the consequences that will almost certainly flow from them:
• Eliminate the inheritance tax.
• Change the income tax to one fixed rate.
• Eliminate the IRS.
• Eliminate the several federal departments and agencies
• Lower the corporate tax rate.
• Eliminate the Affordable Care Act.
• Implement an infrastructure repair program.
• A big reduction the flow of immigrants, with a big increase in expenses to keep them out.
I am not given to hyperbole, and so I will state as simply as I can what must follow from the above objectives. I do not presume to know the ultimate outcome only because history intervened back during the Great Depression of the 1930s when we last encountered these events. It was brought to an end by the rise of fascism in Europe that quickly spread into World War II—leaving between 50 and 75 million human beings dead in its wake.
Consequences: Budget deficits will rise as tax revenues fall. They will worsen as infrastructure rebuilding costs rise. Congress will react to them by making cuts in all entitlement programs including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, aid to dependent children, aid to the aged and the disabled, to education, and to unemployment compensation. Money in circulation will fall; GDP will fall; exports will fall; a recession will set it; unemployment will rise; home foreclosures will rise; and there will be little recourse to the government. The recession will deepen into a Depression; and it will spread worldwide as trade dries up. Soup lines will flourish for a while, and then they too will run out of food and money. There will be pandemonium in the streets as crime rates escalate; families will be on the prowl to find food and shelter. First villages, then towns, and then cities will suffer severe budget deficits. Food, water, sanitation, and medical care will be severely rationed. Bands of raiders will form who will kill on sight for food, medical supplies, and gasoline. The wealthy will first move their assets to overseas tax havens, and then they will retreat to their overseas homes to avoid the hungry masses tearing down the gates and climbing the walls of their isolated communities.
None of the foregoing is inevitable, not if our elected officials come to their senses in time, and they act in the common good. But will they? I don’t know them that well. And I did not vote for any of them. There is always the chance that someone, somewhere will resort to using the nuclear codes. Then both the questions and the answers will become irrelevant.
I can't help be reminded of another trouble time that you have alluded to. The ultrarich captains of industry and finance had driven the stock market to record heights. A Republican, Herbert Hoover, a well educated businessman who had made his fortune mining in Australia, ran on the premise that he would make everyone in the country richer, even those working long dangerous hours in the mines and factories of America without benefits or retirement. Hard-working people, many immigrants, that had no government safety nets in those days.
Like 9/11, and the economic downturns 2001 and 2009, the stock market crash of 1929 led to a period of uncertainty like today. All of Hoover's business skills and programs for prosperity failed. By 1932, the United States (and the World) was in a deep depression. A Democrat, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was elected president on what he called, the New Deal. In spite of FDR's efforts so much damage had been done to the economy that it took, as Ed has written, World War II 10 years later, with tremendous loss of life and waste of resources, for the economy to flourish again.
We need to learn from that lesson. I don't think we have.
Ron
Rebecca
Love ya!
Jane