Politicians are quick to take credit when the economy at hand is flourishing, and just as quick to lay blame elsewhere when jobs are scarce and most of us are hurting. Rick Scott, the current governor of Florida is a case in point. He has held the governor’s throne for the past 8 years. Now, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, he boasts that Florida’s economy was sluggish when he took office, but today the same economy is doing quite well, thanks to him. What he fails to mention is the fact that similar assertions can be said about all 50 states. On the national level, Donald Trump is also taking credit for a national economy that is doing a little better today than it was just 17 months ago. But, once again, the same can be said about all 43 of the world’s leading economies.

So, if not Scott and Trump, then who or what deserves credit for the relatively good and/or bad times? In just two words the answer is the same across the country and around the world: central banks. They control interest rates and the money supply—the two principle factors that stimulate or retard economic growth. Lower interest rates and inject new money into virtually any economy, and economic growth will follow. Raise rates and pull money out, and the same economies sputter.

There are always other factors that can hasten events. Politicians can kill a thriving economy by pillaging and plundering, and other activities that would get most of us time in prison. Deregulating financial institutions, for example, is an almost certain way to bring about a financial disaster. Creating huge budget deficits by giving excessive tax cuts to the wealthy is another way to kill an economy. The current U.S. administration and Congress have managed to do both in recent months. Other countries have followed suit. So, is the U.S. and all world economies doomed to collapse?

That outcome is a bit too pessimistic. But virtually all of the world’s modern economies are heading for a recession. That is a certainty, not a weak forecast. Only the timing and severity are uncertain.

How do I know this? First, central banks have been raising short-term interest rates since about the first of this year. Second, growth in the U.S. money supply has stalled. Both actions take time to reign in a growing economy. Moreover, bankers, CEOs and other wealthy residents wherever they call home have seen their wallets, their bank accounts, and their stock and their real estate portfolios burgeon to record levels. They are all well-positioned to survive a downturn.

What about you and me? We will do exactly what we have always done. We’ll hold onto our meager assets as best we can, huddle around our camp fires, lick our wounds, and wait for the next cycle to begin. Oh, did I mention? Politicians will put the blame squarely on…their opponents.