About 40 years ago Albert Speer, Adolf Hitler’s Minister of Armaments, was out of prison and going about promoting his book in search of dollars to support his new-found freedom. During one of his interviews he described der Fuhrer’s belief that he and his entire staff were all geniuses. In order to document his notion of mental superiority among top Nazi ideologues, Hitler ordered that they all take an IQ exam including himself. When the results came back, he discovered to his dismay that they all had normal IQs, including himself. Unable to live with such mundanity and fearful of his place in history, Hitler ordered that all evidence of their mental abilities be summarily destroyed.

Fast forward to approximately the year 2000. In a similar manner Donald Trump asserted that the average IQ of those who were selected as contestants for his TV show “Apprentice” was 200. Knowing his propensity for wanting to be the “best” at most things, it is a safe guess that he believed his own IQ was even higher. He makes the claim of his superior mental abilities again and again in the presence of TV cameras. So, let’s start here: What is the probability that anyone has an IQ or 200? Followed by, is the Donald among that select group?

The answer to the first question is solvable by probability analysis. Most IQ tests come from a Normal distribution with a mean (average) score of 100, and a standard deviation (average fluctuation) of 15. By plugging these values into the algorithm of the latest MS Excel spreadsheet, we arrive at a probability of finding one person with an IQ of 200 at 1.3 X 10^-11. This means that only 1 person in every 100 billion has such an IQ. That number is literally “off the charts” since there are only 7.5 billion persons on planet Earth.  Searching for such a person would be like looking for a black cat in a dark room—that isn’t there! The thought of anyone searching for 6 or 8 such persons would make for a good comedy skit. Any fool who claimed to have found them would have the audience laughing their asses off.

But let’s move beyond Trump’s belief in “truth by assertion.” Is there other evidence that can help us zero in on the true state of his mental abilities? Let us call upon Bloom’s Taxonomy of Educational Outcomes for more insight.

You probably do not recall that back in the 1950s, psychologist Benjamin Bloom and his colleagues arrived at a logical way of determining mental abilities without the use of IQ scores. First, they described three domains of functional human skills. They are: Cognitive (thinking); Affective (emotional, feelings); and Psychomotor (hand, eye, brain coordination and use). By tradition, measurements have been limited largely to the Cognitive domain. Skills that invoke emotion such as music, art, dancing are difficult to measure, while psychomotor skills are dependent on the functioning of physical parts that may be lacking entirely in many persons.

Let’s discuss the Cognitive skill set.

Bloom et al. put together an ordered sequence of outcomes that showed higher and higher mental abilities. Here are (updated in 2001) the levels and a brief description of each, starting with the simplest (Remembering), and ending with the most difficult (Creating).

Bloom’s (Revised) Taxonomy

I. Remembering. Exhibits memory of previously learned material by recalling facts, terms, basic concepts, and answers.

II. Understanding. Demonstrates understanding of facts and ideas by organizing, comparing, translating, interpreting, giving descriptions, and stating main ideas.

III. Applying.  Gives examples of how the concept can be used in different settings.

IV. Analyzing. Examines and breaks information into parts by identifying motives or causes.

V. Evaluating. Makes inferences and finds evidence to support generalizations. Presents and defends opinions by making judgments about information, validity of ideas, or quality of work based on a set of criteria.

VI. Creating. Compiles information together in a different way by combining elements in a new pattern or proposing alternative solutions.

The beauty of this hierarchy is that you and I can apply it to almost anyone, and we can form a fairly accurate assessment of that person’s mental abilities. For example, if someone cannot recall what he or she just learned, there is no need to even consider the other more difficult skills. His cognitive skills are close to zero. Similarly, if he cannot demonstrate what his new knowledge means in a broader context, he also has very limited mental skills.

The first three skill sets therefore represent the lower forms of cognitive functioning, while the last three represent the higher skills. All can be learned and demonstrated at any age, although the higher skills are limited in the very young, and in the very old.

Now, consider the last 20 times that you watched, listened to, or evaluated a discourse made by Donald Trump. Did he recall his own ideas accurately? Did he contradict himself? Did he give true or false statements in support of his ideas or proposals? Did he break them down into their component parts and show us how all the parts fit together? Did he evaluate them in a coherent and compelling way? and, did he show an exceptional ability to create new models of reality that convinced you he has a creative mind?

As a former teacher at the university level, I offer this observation about his cognitive skills: Donald Trump very often shows us that he cannot recall what he said five years ago, or even five minutes ago. He often contradicts himself in the same sentence. He shows very little understanding of very basic economic, managerial, trade, cultural, and universal concepts. I have yet to see or hear any evidence that shows he is a problem solver. And the three higher level skills are completely lacking in all he says and does. They seem to be beyond his grasp or his concerns. I think we can safely conclude that he is neither a genius, nor even close to members of that select group.

In a recent article a Mensa member estimated Trump’s IQ at 95. I would lower that estimate to about 85, or one standard deviation below the average. That would put him at approximately the bottom 16th percentile. That would mean he is smarter than about 50 million U.S. residents. It would also make him dumber than 275 million of us. Around the world, there would be 6.3 billlion inhabitants who are smarter than the Donald.  As to his membership in the imaginary 200 IQ club--if only it were true !  Donald Trump:  A figment of our imagination...