We live in volatile times. Some of the turmoil arises from Nature, others are the result of human oppression, while still others are the direct effect of blunders made by one person. The best case for the financial market volatility of 2018 can be summed up in one name: Donald Trump. Each of his actions that showed a lack of knowledge and self-control also sent ripples of impending doom around the world’s financial markets like a series of tsunamis.

Working backwards, a few of his blunders were (and remain): shutting down the U.S. government; blaming Fed chief Jerome Powell for stock price volatility; pulling U.S. troops out of Syria without consultation with his top advisors; sending active duty U.S. military personnel to confront an “invasion” along our southern border by a caravan of mainly hungry, tired, and desperate women and children. He also fired all the men and women who outclassed him in brainpower, in courage, and integrity. He apparently is working toward a dictatorship much like that of Vladimir Putin. And why not? He believes he is smarter than his generals, scientists in general, NASA and climate scientists in particular, and the 300+ economic PhDs now in residence at the Federal Reserve. But this is not an essay about him. It is about investment market volatility, why it is here, and a few insights about how you can combat it, and perhaps find a new pathway to higher returns—despite having to digest and survive another new round of outrageous behaviors from the Donald.

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Once upon a time, I was paid a significant income for analyzing and evaluating the value of securities (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and a few derivatives). I also managed them (i.e., bought and sold those same securities for a profit). I did quite well for others. I still engage in those activities, but on much smaller time and money scales. I work for myself. And I am still good at it—even better today than in my “heyday.” It is from that experience that I am writing today, to offer a few insights that you will not read about, listen to, or observe anywhere else. But—in keeping with the securities laws—I am no longer an investment advisor, and I do not offer specific advice to anyone. My insights are free; my sources and methods, however, are neither free nor are they available for a price.

Here are a few insights that you will not read about from any other source:

First, staying abreast of global financial markets requires extensive research skills (check); access to sources and methods not generally known to the public (check); how to use them (check); plus, tracking, monitoring, and forecasting trends at least one or two years ahead ( check). All of that is very time-consuming and expensive (no checks). So how does an otherwise retired old geezer get all that done? Answer: Through cunning, experience, and enlightenment from life “on the plateau.” (3 checks)

The big picture about global markets can only be gleaned from artificial intelligence (AI) models that tap, analyze, and display huge amounts of data from across a wide swath of economic and financial markets. I subscribe to a moderately inexpensive source with an excellent track record of providing very good forecasts on 40 or 50 aspects of all those markets. Others know about this source, but they are smart enough to not talk about them while on television programs with journalists. You will have to dig to find it. Moreover, the jabber that you hear and see on TV is almost worthless because it is based on outdated research and methods by pretenders to the real source of enlightened investment wisdom: gathering, analyzing, and evaluating a lot of cold, hard, facts in a coherent way.

Second, we are in the early years of a new investment era. All the old methods that rely on efficient markets, random price movements, buying and holding a diversified portfolio of securities, results that are limited by “regression to the mean,” and selective hedging are out-of-date. They will all continue to produce only returns of 5 to 8 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate), and that virtually guarantees you will never achieve your hoped-for investment goals. These same methods, however, will continue to provide very high incomes for the money managers. If you choose to follow their advice, you must also accept the fact that you are immersed in the past and in the tired old age of greatly diminished expectations.

Third, the only way out of your quagmire is to make some serious internet inquiries about what is new for serious investors today, tomorrow, and far into the future. Read about AI; find out what is new in portfolio construction methods; learn why following the “buy-and-hold” investment strategy is the biggest mistake you can make. And, by the way, more than 99 percent of all investment managers follow this strategy. Your task will not be easy, but you will recognize the new changes when you stumble upon them. Be certain to include in your search new investment strategy software. It’s out there.

I own an investment portfolio that is outperforming all other portfolios that I know about. Since 2008, it has produced a CAGR of 20 percent. It features but ONE security (an exchange traded fund), a major market downturn avoidance algorithm, and upside leverage most of the time. I monitor its performance once a month. I can buy or sell the entire portfolio in an instant for the princely sum of $5 per trade. I am also protected from being identified as a ”day-trader” simply because I do not day trade. And I protect myself from “wash sales” scrutiny from the IRS by always spacing 30 days or more between trades. Both terms can be found in Investopedia.com definitions section.

What about risk? The standard way of measuring risk for the past 50 or 60 years has been the “standard deviation.” This statistic lets you know very little about the actual risks your investments are subject to. It measures the average price volatility of one or more security. And that volatility also includes its upward trend as part of its volatility. But isn’t a portfolio of investments with a higher upward trend exactly what you want? A better approach is to measure the Sharpe and Sortino ratios.

The Sharpe ratio measures your portfolio’s volatility and returns simultaneously, and lets you know if each unit of return is greater than each unit of volatility. If your portfolio’s Sharpe ratio is greater than one, you have an efficient portfolio with an acceptable amount of volatility. Similarly, the Sortino ratio measures just the downside risk. Now isn’t that exactly what you want and need to know about risk? Few investment advisors know anything about the Sortino ratio because they do not know how to control downside risk. And if your portfolio has less downside risk than say, the SP500 (assuming that is your benchmark portfolio), that measure alone tells you a lot more about your risk than does the simple standard deviation.

OK, I hope this gives you a bit of insight into portfolio construction and management—for today, tomorrow, and for the future. Ask your investment advisor about anything in this short narrative. If he or she scoffs at any part of it, you are dealing with a dunderhead—someone who is lost in a time warp somewhere between 1960 and 2010. And you may quote me on that observation. I began digging my way out of that warp back in the 1980s when I was keen of mind, strong of limb, and determined to be my best at what I do. Just like now.