We were warned by Carl Sagan many times before his death that science and technology were lagging too far behind reality in America’s schools. When this gap reaches the point at which our labor market participants cannot  understand our technology advances, he argued, we will suffer greatly—and we will need to rely on a lot of ignorant people to make policy decisions about scientific issues that they do not understand. We would quickly reach a tipping point at which we would face the great chasm of disaster right before we fell into it. We would quickly become a nation of lost souls under water in a maze of issues that were beyond our comprehension.

I don’t know if Carl ever met Donald Trump—a sample of one who makes his case perfectly. Trump understands dollar flows, and how to funnel them into his bank accounts. He knows how to cheat and steal, lie and deceive, fire the highly competent and hire misanthropes; and how to insult our allies, and kiss our adversary’s asses until the cows come home. But he hates intelligence, skills, originality, and innovation mainly because he is too stupid to comprehend them.  He believes that the Covid-19 virus was unleashed upon the world so that he would lose the coming election. Why? Because that is something that tyrants do. Adolf Hitler gassed 6 million Jews, didn’t he?

The only bright part of our economy today is the unexpected recovery of stock prices. But that could be what some market analysts call a “dead cat” bounce. It happened with massive dollar injections by the Fed that cannot be repeated indefinitely. At this writing, for example, the market is down for reasons that are hard to refute: Investors are anticipating a new surge in virus infections this summer. Why? Too many states are ignoring the warnings of CDC experts, their infection rates are not falling, and the conditions for a viral resurgence is forming. 

So now Trump is about to face a new policy choice: Will he favor the economy over a rising virus infection rate—and lose the election because of rising virus deaths; or will he shut it down again and let falling GDP and rising unemployment numbers become his downfall?  There is much truth in the old adage handed to us from an  anonymous GI who noted: “When you’re up to your ass in alligators, it’s hard to remember your task is to drain the swamp.” An English poet said it with a bit more eloquence: 

“Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.” --Sir Walter Scott.