Back in a prior life when I was an investment advisor, I drew heavily on my research skills in econometrics to forecast the future—the place where all new fortunes are made. I had a good array of tools and indicators at my disposal that brought significantly higher returns to my clients than did most methods in the hands of other advisors in the business did for their clients. That’s just a fact, not a boast. I was too busy making money for my clients to think much about doing the same for myself. Since my “retirement,” I have improved upon the accuracy, reliability and the usefulness of my prediction tools—too late for me, but not for many of my readers.

All of my indicators are pointing toward a downturn later this year or in early 2018. I am making my assessment about the future known today because it is likely to be much worse than present indicators are suggesting. Here are a few of those indicators, followed by a few more that could make matters much worse.

LEI Index. The leading economic indicator index gives us the best glimpse of where the economy is likely to be 6 to 9 months ahead. It is based on actions and events taking place today that will have their full effect several months from now. Help wanted ads, building permits, new factory orders are three LEI components. This index has been trending down since last June, although it is still in positive territory.

Capacity Utilization. This index shows how much of our industrial capacity is currently being used, compared to our full capacity. It, too, is trending down.

Short-term Interest Rates. Our economy has been expanding for the past 84 months. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised short-term rates twice in recent months to “cool down” economic growth, and thus to curtail inflation and to stabilize prices. The Fed has indicated it is ready to boost these rates several more times in 2017.

Money in Circulation. Economic growth depends on a combination of how much money is in circulation, and how fast it is being spent. Both rates are trending down thus indicating slower economic growth ahead.

The Dollar. A stronger dollar in exchange markets means more imports coming in at lower prices, but fewer exports going out because of the higher costs to our trading partners. Present forecasts show these trends will continue with a negative effect on our balance of trade and on our economic growth.

Put all the preceding factors together, and they suggest, at best, a slow down ahead to an already weakened economy. More likely they portend a recession looming just over the horizon. My favorite artificial intelligence source also confirms the recession outlook. I leave my prediction about an actual financial market downturn to a real-time indicator that is calibrated to a level of uncanny accuracy. We are not there yet.

Now, here are additional bad news factors that could push any recession into the depths of something very ugly.

Financial Markets. The last recession (2008-2010) had its origins within the relatively unregulated financial sector. Although it had many contributing factors, many analysts agree that credit swaps sold to the world as very low risk derivatives, yet backed by subprime mortgages that were very high risk, was the weakest link in that chain. A big player in that chain was Goldman Sachs. Pres. Trump has made it clear that he favors less regulation of Wall Street. His appointments of former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin as Sec. of Treasury, and Steven Bannon as his top advisor point to a return to the days of “fast and loose” activities that benefit the ultra rich at the expense of all others.

Tax Cuts. Now that the effort to repeal Obamacare has failed, the President is concentrating his efforts on huge tax cuts. Tax cuts, however, are always heavily weighted toward the wealthy. That money goes into wealth building (stocks, bonds, are real estate). It does not go into circulation where it is spent on products and services. It thus cannot expand GDP, or jobs.  Rarely has, cannot now. It directly affects tax revenues and budget deficits. Both must worsen with with tax cuts.  Almost always have, almost always will.  (The Kennedy tax cut was a rare exception that brought down extremely high tax rates to only moderately high tax rates)

Elimination of the Inheritance Tax. In addition to bills that would eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Education, Matt Gaetz (R-Fl) has now introduced another bill that would eliminate the inheritance tax. As many of us have reported numerous times, the inheritance laws are the biggest factor behind inequality of both incomes and wealth in America. And these inequalities are directly linked to our high crime rates, to high drug usage rates, to suicides, to teen pregnancies, to high illiteracy rates, to high murder rates, and to virtually all of our social ills. (See The Spirit Level by R.G. Wilkinson and K. Pickett).  Elimination of the inheritance tax is the long-sought goal of the very wealthy.  It could be the death knell to freedom as we have known it by locking in a grossly skewed inequality that could last until a catastrophic collapse.

Spin Off Effects. Lower taxes and higher budget deficits also make government assistance programs and entitlements easy prey for cuts in government spending. Thus while a whole host of negative outcomes must follow tax cuts, they have the potential to drive an economic recession much deeper into a massive depression.

None of the foregoing is a forecast of what will happen. They are predictions of what could happen in the absence of unforeseen events that might prevent them from happening. Plagues, pestilence, nuclear war, incoming meteors, general uprisings, and such are examples of events that could change things for better or for worse--depending on your views about karma and what is just.