I don't know the first thing about horse racing. Hell, I don't know the first thing about horses. Yet I like watching the Kentucky Derby. For me, it's the sense of event more than anything else.
When I turned the coverage on about an hour before post time - for those out there even less neophytes than yours truly, post time is when the race is scheduled to start - I found myself wondering which horse with the longest odds had ever won the race. Then I saw a horse named Rich Strike was entered at 80-1 odds. And I knew, I simply, honestly, absolutely knew, knew beyond question, that Rich Strike was going to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby. There was no doubt in my mind.
With that knowledge, and I will call it knowledge as I was that certain, I thought about going online and placing a bet on the horse. But every single reason why that would have been stupid marched to the front of my mind.
He's an 80-1 longshot, odds determined by experts on such things.
The horse wasn't even in the race until the day before. He got in only after a last minute scratch. What does that say, in practical terms, about its chances?
Rich Strike was purchased by its current owners for $30,000, a significant amount of money to most of us but a pittance for a high level racehorse. What should that tell anyone, especially a guy who, to repeat, knows nothing about horses?
You can't invest real money on something you know nothing about. That's dumb.
You're going to feel like a fool to lose $100 on a horse who had no reasonable chance to win. Yes, I was seriously thinking I would bet a C-Note on Rich Strike. I mean, hey, 80-1 odds? That's an $8,000 payoff. Still, if I had bet and lost, none of you would ever know.
So I talked myself out of placing the bet. And that 80-1 horse came in exactly like I knew it would.
To be sure, it wouldn't have put me on easy street. But this blog wouldn't have been so rueful today either, because I knew Rich Strike was going to win.
More Blogs by Charles M Cosgriff • Lilac Cadillac - Saturday, May 14, 2022 • Twin Bills - Wednesday, May 11, 2022 • I Didn't Strike it Rich - Sunday, May 8, 2022 • The Sublime to the Ridiculous - Thursday, January 13, 2022
