A Forecast:  For What It’s Worth

As some of my followers know, for about 20 years I developed and managed $500 million worth of investment portfolios for 800 different individuals. I made a lot of money for them, averaging 15 percent per year. One fellow had $11 million invested, while the others had accounts that scaled down in value from there. That said, I still manage my own money—more for fun than for profit. It keeps me out of the bars and away from the exciting life. My heart can’t take too much excitement these days. At least that is what my doctors tell me. I listen to them—occasionally.

Today, I use an artificial intelligence (AI) model to forecast 30 different world markets. This behemoth takes 1,500 variables, digests them, and spits out 1,800 forecasts over a 5-year time period—and repeats them all every month. I am not the designer, nor do I monitor anything more than the forecasts from it. But I know the designer, most of his variables, and basically how they are arrayed and interconnected. He is really good at what he does. I stalk his output like a panther, ready to pant. His service is not free. I pay him for it, and so do others.

The following is not investment advice. Now, I am merely asserting my bragging rights about old skills, merged with the new. Today, the AI model shows the SP500 at 4012, continuing upward until June, then pulling back about 10 percent through November, thence onward and upward until July 2022, stalling for a couple of months, then continuing onward and upward until November 2024, peaking are 5024. That’s a 25 percent predicted gain in 31 months. His average error is +/- 1.6 percent over that time period, within 30 days of each forecasted month.

Now if all that were to come true, and if you used leverage, you could realize a 50 percent gain in that same time period. Notice I used two “ifs”, one “were,” and a “could” plus an average error rate in my narrative. I track every movement along the way with my own stochastic oscillator, in order to get a better handle on price movements. He and I work very well together.

So what is my point? I said I was using my bragging rights. I write, analyze, put my money at risk, while I occasionally imbibe, flirt, and sometimes make a fool of myself. I also don’t believe in miracles. Still, it beats retirement.

Ciao!