Covid-19: Is an Economic Meltdown (and More) Likely?
When truth and imagination meet…
This narrative is not a prediction, it is not a forecast, and it isn’t even highly probable—not yet. But events here and abroad are moving in the direction of devastating consequences faster and faster on a daily basis. And even though I do not hold myself out as a doomsday predictor of unspeakable news, somebody has to at least explain the possible road ahead that nobody wants to hear or read about. I elected myself for that task.
The polls currently show that Joe Biden has a huge lead over Donald Trump. If the elections were held today, Biden would be the easy winner. The following four years would be difficult, but we would be pulling together. And we would emerge from these times relatively intact. But there are 145 days until election day. And we all know there will be many changes coming our way twixt now and then.
Donald Trump has shown us that he will pull out all the stops in his quest for a victory. He has a bulging war chest of campaign funds from which to unleash barrage after barrage of lies, distortions, and mis-directions on a scale unheard of in modern times. He recently proclaimed the recent 2.5 million employment gain as a huge victory for humanity, despite the 21.5 million worker loss just one month earlier. But that is only a tiny wiggle of what his campaign is able to do. We will all be pummeled by them soon enough. But what if the virus and the economy have us all in deep murky waters…and he is still the predicted loser come late September or early October? What then?
He could declare a national emergency, and postpone the elections indefinitely. Would he be prepared to ward off an intervention by the Supreme Court? Yes. And would he accept a ruling against him? I think not. He might even try to disband the Supreme Court. In his own words, “What would he have to lose?” Neither justice nor fair elections are part of his vocabulary. He is a dictator—a megalomaniac. He could seek personal safety by hunkering down in remote places such as the top-secret Cheyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado. There he could issue Executive Orders every day that direct people and events to bend to his will, or order other shenanigans for us to do until the polls shifted decidedly in his favor. Whether that took 6 months or 6 years, he wouldn’t care.
Meanwhile the economic wheels from around the world would grind to a halt. And a new Dark Age would envelope us. We would be reduced to growing and stockpiling our own food, to keeping many weapons at our disposal, and to hunkering down as best we could with little or no support from public utilities for electricity or water. Banks would all close as borrowing and lending both dried up, stock prices would plunge to all-time lows, while law and order would quickly become a thing of the past. Survivors might aggregate into renegade bands who made up their own laws as events demanded. Why would anyone listen to reason when a few bullets could win most discussions?
How might a megalomaniac respond to such conditions? I believe he would launch a nuclear war against all his enemies. And that could include everyone we now consider as our friends. The rest of this story goes beyond my limited imagination. Early survivors would be too few and too far between to expect there could be long-term survivors.
Well, there it is. With a few refinements, it could be made into a B-grade movie. But with a few more changes, we may not have enough time to include them all before the nukes began reducing us to rubble.
I am in full agreement with your assessment and also concur with your measured optimism. At the moment, I lean toward being optimistic that this too will pass and November will hopefully bring out every registered voter in the land. All we have to pressure is the write in voting over stand in line for your death sentence... yeah, talkin' to you Floridian and Texas retirees.
As always Ed, you make us truly take score on our knowledge verses emotional belief and make us accountable to ourselves... those who remain conscious. Kudos.
Ron: I have known three pathological liars in my lifetime. Two were delusional about most things, but they were also relatively harmless. Trump is different. He will use his power to punish those who call him out as a complete phony. And while I am also an optimist, I don't wade into the pond behind my house to feed the alligators. I would not trust Trump to be honorable and empathetic in any capacity, anywhere. Relying on optimism to get us out from under his control and his actions is about as foolhardy a position that anyone could take. BTW, although the majority of us follow the social distancing and mask guidelines, too many do not. That is why there has been no nationwide downturn in the Covid-19 data. If another wave of it hits (high probability), we may find ourselves in total lockdown--with Trump screaming like a ruptured duck. Then what? Reality has a way of trumping optimism, to coin a phrase.
You certainly have taken the dire route. I have written, in fiction similar scenarios unfolding.
But I always remain optimistic. I don't understand why people fear the sharing of information and ideas created by technology like the cell phone. After all, that awful music from Britain, black music turned into the British Invasion, from the Beatles and others, brought the mighty Soviet Union down.
Even the Republicans are beginning to doubt their mighty leader when last week, he pulled the strange stunt of having the DC police pepper spray peaceful demonstrators so that he could walk across the street and hold up a Bible in front of a church without permission. His chief military officer has since apologized for going with him, because it sends a message that he can use the military against US citizens exercising their right under the Bill of Rights to petition and protest.
Two things make me optimistic. First, the mandatory stay-at-home and closedown business order. For the most part, people did that peacefully. And then, there was a great outpouring of help, citizen to citizen and cooperation with all things. Criminal activity increased very little. Second, when George Floyd was murdered in full view of citizen cell phone videos, the cry from minority oppressed colored people rose up in massive peaceful protest with mixed age and race involved.
And to things happened. First, the virus death toll was largely much smaller than predicted and while there was violence associated with a very small percentage of the protesters, it was very small when compared to riots over the same issues in the past.
Finally, in response to your fears over the election. The recent revealing of statistics about the unfavorable treatment of people of color by law enforcement and other sectors of society will bring a voter turnout similar to what happened when we had a mixed race man of integrity and education run for office, Barack Obama.
Unfortunately, the degradation of Joe Biden's supposed improprieties from the past are already being bandied about by Russians and right-wingers as a way to discredit him as a presidential candidate. I am worried about his age, similar to Trump's growing paranoia and senility, that doesn't bode well for having an old president in office.
A hundred percent agreement with you on this. Cant write more for I have to say now we have the 'Ditto' same situation in India with the one at the helm here. The trajectory is the same for the two beings!!!
Major League ballplayer Justin Moore is kidnapped from his own ballpark and transported to a foreign land. It might take high-level international negotiations to free him. Or maybe he will take matters into his own hands.
Imogene, a country-bred girl, longs to make a life for herself in New York City. She joins forces with her former college roommate to start a movie production company in the big city.