We are becoming the focal point of a regional war in the Horn of Africa

It is the general understanding that Somalia is sliding back to yet another war quite different from to the one it had been fighting over the past 16 years. The neighboring countries are this time involved as they are taking sides with the two main antagonists in the country: The Union of Islamic Courts and the Transitional Federal Government.

There is a widening gap of misunderstanding between them and are grouping and regrouping their militia in various places of the country, obtaining military and financial support from their partners in the region. Ethiopia has already made clear that it will defend the TFG if the Islamists attack them while the Islamists themselves are accused of receiving military hardware and training from Eritrea.

In September the Islamic Courts Union have attacked and subsequently occupied the strategic port town of Kismayo in Loser Jubba dislodging the chairman of Jubba Valley Alliance, Col. Barre Hiiraale who is also the minister of defense of the Transitional Federal Government.

Col. Hiiraale holed up in his tribal stronghold of Bardhere and has moved towards Kismayo in an effort to recapture it but the Islamists met him with fierce battle in Bu’ale and defeated him again, forcing the Col. And his remaining militia to retreat to the position they had left before.

These military victories reached by the Islamists angered Ethiopians who have shown fears about the expanding influence of Islamists in the region. As a move towards reducing the strength of the Islamic Courts in Bu’ale, where they were clashing with Col. Hiiraale, the government attacked Bur Hakaba in the Bay region, 180 Kms south west of Mogadishu and took over the control of that town which doesn’t have any significance as far as military operations are concerned.

A tug of war has taken place between the two and for few days no one seemed to be in full control of the town.
The Islamists accused Ethiopia of being involved in the Bur Hakaba war to assist the government in seizing the town but, as usual, Ethiopia has denied these accusations.

As part of reconciliation efforts the Islamists and the TFG have met in Khartoum and have drafted out a memorandum of understanding to recognize each other and to convene another meeting within a span of thirty days. They held a second round of talks in Khartoum last August and agreed to resume third round of talks at same venue after one month, fixing the meeting date as October 30 2006.

But between then and now horrible incidents have taken place ranging from killing a catholic nun in Mogadishu to an assassination attempt against the president and invasions by Islamic courts in the Jubba regions. The negative impact of these incidents has already been noticed in the third round of talks between the government and the Islamic clerics.

The two groups have locked horns in a serious political deadlock which can never be solved unless one side makes concessions for the sake of peace. As we know Somalia has high, if not the highest, maternal and child mortality rates so it can not afford to sink back to chaos and strife.

We need leaders who care about their country and people and not sleep or enjoy the luxury of five star hotels while their people who live in makeshift houses are washed away by torrential rains. If the Khartoum meeting fails then it is crystal clear that the Islamists and the TFG will clash soon as they return home and I’m afraid both are pulling Trojan horses into the heart of the motherland.

Let’s take a glimpse at the other side of Somalia’s political coin. There is mounting tension along the borders we share with Kenya and Ethiopia. Kenya has mobilized its troops along the border with Somalia in an effort to contain the expansion of Islamic Clerics into its territory after militia loyal to the Islamic courts brought their influence to communities residing near the Somali Kenya border.

With all these developments taking at its backyard, Kenya has a duty to be alert and monitor Islamic courts movements in the Jubba areas of Kismayo because it has a large Moslem population including Kenyans of ethnic Somali origin who may sympathize with the winds of change now spreading across its neighboring Somalia.

Kenya shares this feeling with Ethiopia who also has Islamic insurgents inside its territory who might get support from the Islamists in Mogadishu. Both nations are allied in the protection of the weak Transitional Federal Government instituted in Mbagathi, Kenya after more than two years of reconciling the warring Somali factions.

If the Union of Islamic Courts collides with the TFG which acts as a defense line for Ethiopia, the islamists will most likely face a response from the neighboring countries. This would probably make Somalia another Congo in the Horn of Africa.

Though the Somali borders with Kenya and Ethiopia is far from the Mogadishu there is extensive mobilization in the city as regards to the increasing tension between the Islamist clerics and the Ethiopian troops allegedly occupying certain portions of the Somali territory.

There were demonstrations in all areas controlled by the Union of Islamic Courts to call the people to take part in a Jihad war with the Ethiopians and anybody who might venture to cross the Somali border with an intention to attack the Islamic courts and the Somali people.

According to sources close to western intelligence, the American government has decided to take a new approach to the tackle the Islamists in Mogadishu. Four corridors have been identified so far to stop the Islamic Courts from spilling their fanatic thoughts to the neighboring countries. Washington’s new approach would also give protection to all American facilities and political interests in the entire region.

In this plan the Kenyans, who have close military cooperation with the Americans, would take control over the Southern corridor extending from Baidoa to Kismayo by strengthening its troops along its border with Somalia. It is clear that the Jubba regions are not in immediate danger from being attacked by the Ethiopians as the Ethiopians were relocated a next corridor in the central regions stretching from Baidoa all the way to Galkayo in the Mudug region.

What surprises everyone is the role of Uganda in this plan. They have sent troops to Baidoa on September this year in support of the TFG and although it does not have any border with Somalia it shows some fears about possible expansion of Islamist ideas in their country which might intensify Islamic movements in that East African nation.

In addition to that, Ugandans requested to be given a small chunk of these corridors and, in response to their request, a small strip from Baidoa to Bardhere has been tossed for them.

In taking control of this area, Uganda will use Kenyan territory along the border with Somalia. To justify the allotment Uganda argues that by taking control of this portion it will avail itself an opportunity to avoid Islamists from cutting off the logistical support it provides to its army currently stationed in Baidoa.
The fourth corridor is Mudug region where the president of Somalia himself hails.

If islamists take over Baidoa or in any way threaten his government the president is planned to move to his tribal stronghold of Galka’yo town in the central regions. There he will mobilize his tribesmen to wage an offensive against the Islamic Courts which are predominantly controlled by a rival Hawiye tribe.

Somalia has become the center stage of a regional conflict. Most of the frontline IGAD nations are supporting the Transitional Federal Government while the Arab nations are siding with the Islamists. Somalia is no more in the hands of Somalis and Somali leaders seem to have lost ownership of their country.

All neighboring nations and those in far beyond, have stood up to protect their interests in Somalia but no one stands to protect and defend the rights of the Somalia. A government should have been the vanguard of the country and the people, but unfortunately in Somalia we have a government which should be protected from its people.

Even if the situation improves in the borders by easing tension and reducing the build up or by abandoning the current Washington plan to disrupt Islamic courts’ desire to expand their influence in neighboring countries, nothing tangible shall improve in the Somali politics.

Unless the parties, the Islamic Union of courts and the TFG come together and sort out differences the chances to get viable and rather sustainable peace is very slim. America has already made a positive move and urged the two factions to start talking with immediate effect, leaving behind the unnecessary preconditions to preside the meeting.

At any cost war must be avoided because when war breaks out there will be rockets landing in residential areas killing and maiming innocent people. There will be thieves around every street robbing people of their belongings.

People in the rural farms will be trampled on, forcing them to flee their locations. And sometimes the trek to a nearby urban town or a feeding center is too difficult to cope with. The agricultural production facilities shall be disrupted as the farmers who use to produce food shall be reduced to consumers who should wait for food from aid agencies.

Flights will be suspended for a period of time and the seaport will no more function because of continuous shelling by rival factions. No ships will dock and merchant-turned warlords will use makeshift seaports to discharge their goods. Prices will skyrocket as inflation will soar high.

A Humanitarian crisis will explode like a volcano in almost all corners of the country and it will take time until agencies get sufficient donations from the international community.

This delay of funds and the lack of safe corridors to deliver humanitarian supplies will cause catastrophes and painful human tragedies as the scale of death mainly that of women and children, will be enormously high.

Somalia is in the verge of extinction and its people will perish in the tune of thousands if war breaks out another time in their country. 90% of Somalis live with remittances sent to them by relatives and kinships living in Europe, Canada or America and if the money transfer channels are affected by the war, they will probably die from hunger. Worse still, these people have no economic fallback and shall suffer so terribly if their life line is cut by a regional scale war.

Yet the world does not see this menace unfolding before our own eyes. They are only focused on their political and military interests in Somalia wishing us to fight their war inside our country.