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There's a tendency to apply a type of Moore's Law to all technological advances, not just computing capacity. That is, we assume that we'll advance rapidly in all areas, not just in computer chips and transistors. Some futurists of the past thought that we'd have cured diseases like diabetes or cancer by now, for instance
In college, I wrote a story called "Sweet Dreams" about a girl who meets her clone. My science fiction and fantasy writing instructor's major critique: It didn't seem very futuristic. Other than cloning technology, I hadn't extrapolated how other technologies might change in the future.
A lack of extrapolation isn't always a problem, of course. In experimental or didactic sci-fi, a realistic future isn't as important since the themes and ideas in the story are the point.
A recent example is the movie In Time, where a person's lifespan is used as currency. Nothing else about that future is really futuristic. The culture, the things people buy, the luxury items, and even the social system aren't much different than today. The movie dramatizes what the lower class gives up for the upper class's life of luxury. In Time is ultimately a political movie.
Read the rest on my blog at the link below and get links to other useful extrapolation ideas
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