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Emile M Tubiana

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Analysis of the Cessation of Hostilities
by Emile M Tubiana   
Rated "G" by the Author.
     
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In conclusion, this war has allowed all parties, Israel, Hamas, Egypt, the U.S., the UN, Turkey, Iran and Qatar to recognize their strength and their weakness.

Analysis of the Cessation of Hostilities
  
Israelis are wondering if the cease-fire was necessary or whether they should have given orders to the army. After analyzing things, I think that Hamas, which launched its rockets against Israeli towns and particularly against civilians and the non-military, is guilty of war crimes.
   
In Egypt, the situation of the President, Mr. Morsi, was not yet consolidated. But due to the fact that Hamas had approached him, Morsi felt in a better position. This however makes one think, whether President Morsi had not encouraged Hamas to react against Israel. Obama, who was not on good terms with Mr. Morsi and wanting to avoid pressure from Congress, which was in good terms with Netanyahu, contacted Mr. Morsi in order for the latter to begin negotiations with Hamas. Similarly, Obama asked the Turkish Prime Minister, Mr. Erdogan to join with Morsi, to calm and stop the rocket firing and the Israeli retaliation against Hamas. This way, Mr. Morsi had an opportunity to prove himself as a skilled negotiator who raised to the occasion. In addition, Mohammed Badei, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood would not accept the Israeli conditions. Morsi called on Iran so that the Iranian leader would convince the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. Eventually, President Morsi’s standing was much improved vis-à-vis the Egyptian army, vis-à-vis Hamas, his people, and vis-à-vis Iran, America and Israel. Erdogan, to the contrary, was not up to it, because you cannot be a negotiator and insult one of the parties, as he did from day one against Israel, treating it as a criminal.
  
After the cease-fire, most Israelis accused Netanyahu of having done wrong by not giving the green light for the troops to attack Hamas in its place. I fully understand the feelings of the people, but ultimately, things must make sense. Obama had convinced Netanyahu, giving him some promises, he was not ready to give before. Meanwhile, Obama is convinced that the people of Israel were ready for battle, despite all the rockets. Indeed, Netanyahu had given orders several times and had taken them back, considering the news that reached him from America and from elsewhere, to stop the troops from entering Gaza. Netanyahu wanted to give diplomacy a chance, while defending the Israeli interests. When the negotiations had reached a certain level, Obama had to intervene to convince Netanyahu about Israel’s interests, such as: the American promise to intervene in case of breach of the truce and the promise to provide funds to Israel necessary to increase the number of "iron domes."
  
Netanyahu has done a huge service to Morsi and to Obama: He gave an advantage to Morsi, Morsi did not have before, mainly because of the people's demonstrations against the U.S. embassy, which deteriorated his good ties with the Americans. In fact, Obama, who was recently re-elected and Morsi, who is new in his position were testing the waters, were trying to establish contact, without a direct link. These eight days have opened a channel of communication between America and Egypt. This way links between President Obama and President Morsi are forged every day.
  
The arrival of U.S. Secretary of State Clinton, and Obama’s arguments for the cease-fire allowed the two men get to know each other and each served his interests, while negotiating the interests of Hamas and Israel. To note: the fact that Morsi had telephoned to Iran and got their support, was not lost to Obama. This fact has raised Morsi in the eyes of Obama. Among other things, the fact that Netanyahu has accepted Obama’s arguments and promises has also enhanced their personal relationship, which was not the best. Without saying and without shouting from the rooftops, the two politicians have found a common political language.
  
Soon, President Morsi of Egypt and President Obama will realize the good qualities Netanyahu has demonstrated, and his depth of spirit. As a result of these events and exchanges of views and arguments, these three statesmen are now indirectly related in their efforts to bring peace to the Middle East. Similarly, Mr. Mishal, head of Hamas has recognized Netanyahu’s determination and his intellectual and military strength, that he can deploy at the right time. Hence Mishal could not do anything else, not wanting to have four strong men against him, either Morsi, Netanyahu, Obama or the UN.
  
Alas, today the New York Times just published that President Morsi seized new powers, ignoring the constitution and all other powers, which would be a coup.
  
Remains to be seen how the Egyptians will react.
 
In conclusion, this war has allowed all parties, Israel, Hamas, Egypt, the U.S., the UN, Turkey, Iran and Qatar to recognize their strength and their weakness.
   

Copyright 2012 Emile Tubiana
 


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