Take a look at what is happening between Israel and the Palestinians in light of the fact that the situation of Iran, Iraq and Syria is unstable and has not been resolved. It’s not the right time for Israel – Palestinian agreements, while the situation in Iraq got worse, and Syria is in disarray. In reference to Jordan, Al Qaida is at its borders, and pushing for democracy at this time is inappropriate. In reference to Egypt, the situation is blurry and they need time to stabilize the country before any reform can be implemented. Any disturbance can have negative effects on the oil supply through the Suez Canal.

In reference to Saudi Arabia, which until now was not taken into consideration when we pushed for ousting Mubarak, we know that they supplied Egypt with enormous sums of money to enable el Sissi to act. For the moment Egypt is about to clear the Sinai Peninsula and parts of Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Al Qaida. I believe that stability in the Middle East depends on Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

My best advice is to hold off with democratization plans until things settle down. In my view, the Obama administration wanted to change too many things too rapidly, and within five years it was not able to enhance the situation in the Middle East countries, but rather plunge them in turmoil. The only country which seems to find some stability is Tunisia, due to an intelligent man, Mr. Caid Essebsi, who initiated the dialog with the EnNahda parti, since the beginning. They finally recognized that it is better to find an amicable solution that to impose religious laws in Tunisia.

Copyright 2014 Emile Tubiana