[image: wikipedia]

Carnage!

Most U.S. investment managers and advisors are held to the “prudent man” rule by the Securities Exchange Commission. This rule means they are required to act in a way that any prudent person would act when circumstances warrant. Today, that rule could have and should have been invoked. That is because nearly all the major stock indexes fell below their 200-day moving averages. That is a signal for prudent investors to sell their holdings, or to at least take other actions to safeguard their holdings. Some investors sold, hence the falling stock prices here and around the world. Most did not sell mainly because they cannot when someone else manages their money. Others never heard of the prudent man rule or know about moving averages. But they will understand something is seriously wrong when they see the value of the IRA or their 401(k) holdings are down 5 to 10 percent in recent months. The total losses around the globe are in the neighborhood of $8 trillion dollars. What is worse is that this could be just the start staggering wealth losses around the world that could make the Great Depression seem like a weekend at Disney World.

The reason for the financial carnage is the completely unnecessary trade war with China put into place by Donald Trump. His war has already cost the average U.S. resident about $1,000 in higher retail prices, soon to go up to $1,600, according to J.P. Morgan analysts. In technical terms, that is a “double whammy.”

Bankruptcies and unemployment are also part of the carnage. And falling stock prices are also a good predictor of economic recessions. All this thanks to one man and to his self-proclaimed “genius IQ” and to his problem-solving skills.

Trump’s propensity for carnage has neither limits nor shame. He blames (alternately) Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, or the entire Federal Reserve, or Democrats, or Barack Obama, or China—anyone but himself. Conversely, he loves Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, two despots on the world scene, and he takes their word over our entire community of intelligence professionals on any issue. His own administration has had more resignations than anyone can keep track of, and his cabinet heads roll in and roll out so fast that about the only person we can point to with any expertise at all is Secretary of State Pompeo. But being loyal to Trump takes a lot of fakery, much like everything about him. Pompeo has given up any rights to future claims of honor or distinctive service in spite of his abilities.

One advantage to being a chronicler of carnage is that it gives Trump ample opportunity to change the subject in a moment away from his latest barrage of lies with something equally outlandish. Case in point: His offer to buy Greenland from Denmark. Yeah, sure. Or his observation that he loves Kim Jong Un because “Kim” writes him love letters. Forgive me for mentioning the prospect of a lower bowel moving image of Donald, Kim, and Vlad in a ménage à trois love affair. Ugh.

Apparently, the “mastermind” of nearly all Trump’s policies in carnage is Stephen Miller, a 34-year old picture of pure hell. This upstart has given us Trump's travel ban, the reduction in the number of refugees accepted to the United States, the policy of separating migrant children from their parents; while he prevented the publication of internal administration studies that showed that refugees have a net positive effect on government revenues. Miller reportedly played a central role in the resignation in April 2019 of Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstien Nielsen, who he believed was insufficiently hawkish on immigration. On multiple occasions he has made false and unsubstantiated claims regarding widespread electoral fraud. Indeed, Wikipedia has 81 citations that show Miller is a far right-wing agitator and proponent in the mold of Steve Bannon and has been since his high school days. His thumb print is on every Trump policy that attacks human rights, justice, and freedom. Apparently, there is a time and place for everything under heaven.

The most recent polls virtually all show that Donald Trump does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the election next year. But in this age of tweets, hacks, lies, propaganda, gerrymandering, rigging, and other forms of carnage yet to be devised, polls have a way fading faster than the morning dew.

At the risk of repeating this phrase once too often: Elections have consequences. Make a note: Vote.