When the Lebanese politicians went to Lebanon they knew that without thier mutual concessions their country would go to another civil war. The Iranians were present through celluar phones and the Qatari foerign minister and his Emir just talked much to their counterparts in Tehran.
The Saudis and the Egyptians to save Lebanon agreed to the deal. Now the president has been elected. His cabinet would rule. Nobody could touch Hezbo-Allah arms until at least Washington is ready to support the moderates.
The Iranian-Americans confrontations and deals in Iraq will be the determinents of what will happen in Lebanon. The American diplomats may use the Doha deal as a concession and ask the Iranians to give them one in Iraq.
Having the veto power in the cabinet, Hezbo-Allah will not handle its arms to the weak Lebanese army. Another trial through Damascus by giving Golan to it for dissolving its alliance with Iran may markedly reduce the influence of Hezbo-Allah there. This may affect the deal between Israel and Hamas through the Egyptian mediation by cutting the Syrian support to Hamas.
But at last all plans may be ruined if peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority failed. Only Mr. Bush believes in its sucess.
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