Israel had warned Assad multiple times, not to forward any advanced weaponry he received from Iran or Russia, to Hezbollah. Until now, Israel never reacted to any weapon stockpiling, except for the North corean built atomic reactor. Now, it had no choice but to destroy these very dangerous arms before they reached Lebanon, where they would be used by Hezbollah against Israel.
If Israel had to choose between Bashar Hafez al-Assad and the rebels, that no one knows their roots, their origin or their affiliation, it would prefer Assad. I believe that if Mr. Assad was not allied with Iran and Hezbollah, without knowing him as person, I would prefer him to any group which is related to any terrorist group. After all neither his father nor himself disturbed Israel or the region for almost 50 years.
Furthermore, since we had the experience of the Arab spring revolutions, be it in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya no one can say today that those revolutions were successful. The opposite is true , for the people as well as for their countries. These revolutions have not brought anything positive.
Despite the support of our American Democrats and the Obama administration, as both have believed in and supported these revolutions, the results we have seen are deplorable and set the Arab people back by at least 100 years. Finally they got theocratic regimes that want to instate Shariah Law, just like the Ennahda in Tunisia. Alas, many of our American friends do not see a difference between what the Arab countries had before, and where they stand now. Before, they were not rich, but they did not starve. Today, not only do they starve, but they became miserable and led by fanatic religious dictators.
I do not think that it is in Israel’s interest to open a war with Syria. The attacks they made were precisely geared to show Assad that Israel meant what it said, when it warned Assad in the past. Israel does not want any war, and it knows that it is preferable to get along. After all, Syria has enough territory. In my view, the only goal Israel had was to show Assad that it is not in his best interest to be an ally of either Iran or Hezbollah, which are viewed by the world as terrorists and fanatics, and do not belong in Syria. Assad should use this occasion to say “no” to Iran, “no” to Hezbollah, as the Middle East needs to live in peace. Israel would be better served if Assad remained in power, than if the rebels took over, of whom we don’t know if they belong to AlQaida or to religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
There is an Arab proverb saying: “Hold on to the bad you have, before you get one worse”.
For over two years, since the revolutions started, Israel has never mixed itself into the affairs of any of the states involved. It is also the interest of Syria, to have Israel as a good neighbor. They have more to win than to lose.
Iran’s theocratic leadership has only one goal in mind, to obtain nuclear power in order to dominate the region and all Arab countries. For that purpose, it brought its own military to Syria, supposedly to help the country, but in reality it is to better penetrate the region and get access to the Mediterranean and to other Arab countries. Hezbollah is known to be a terrorist organization and a proxy of Iran. If on the other hand Russia were to support Syria alone, at least they are more reasonable, and they could find a solution together with the US to stabilize Syria and safeguard the port they built for and with Assad. After all it was the dream of Peter the Great to penetrate the Mediterranean.
I believe this solution would also be in the US interest, as they would not have to send troops to Syria, and in the interest of the rebels, who would get better conditions.
Copyright 2013 Emile Tubiana
