Is world war III inevitable? This question is not from a pessimist, and it is also not from someone with morbid fascinations. It is a question that comes from a realist. Realism is oftentimes based on historical accounts. And history has a way of repeating itself.

 

Let us take a somewhat broad look at the previous apocalyptic conflicts of world war 1 and world war 2, and the history of military alliances.

 

Europe has a long history of military alliances. In the later part of the 19th century, various treatise and alliances were formed. These alliances were; the German-Austro-Hungarian alliance of 1879, popularly known as the Dual Alliance. The addition of Italy to the Dual Alliance in 1882, led to the formation of the Triple Alliance.

 

Then you had the Franco-Russian Alliance of 1894, and the Entente Cordiale in 1904, between the United Kingdom and France.

 

The Entente Cordiale treaty between Great Britain and France, saw a significant improvement in Anglo-French relations. For several centuries, both nations had been age-old rivals, and enemies at different times in history, like the hundred years' war, the seven years' war and the Napoleonic wars.

 

With the passage of time, the Entente Cordiale developed from the Franco-Russian Alliance of 1894, and an Anglo-Russian agreement of 1907, which brought the Triple Entente into existence.

 

The Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy saw a drastic change with the exit of Italy as the first world War raged in 1915.

 

Italy was not as formidable a partner as Germany and Austria-Hungary were. Italy hated and mistrusted Austria-Hungary, leading to a  severance in ties, it had made with the empire in 1882.

 

On June the 28th, 1914, Austria-Hungary's archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by the Serbian nationalist, Gavrilo Princip. Gavrilo Princip was a member of the black handers, a Serbian insurgent group that was fighting for the independence of Serbia from the Astro-Hungarian monarchy.

 

To avenge the killings of the archduke and his wife, duchess Sophie, Austria-Hungary gave an ultimatum to Serbia, which the empire had expected to be fulfilled in order to avoid being drawn to the brink of war.

 

The failure on the part of Serbia to fulfill the demands of the empire, led to the shelling of Belgrade on the 28th of July, 1914 by the Austro-Hungarian empire.

 

It was at this point that the European Alliance system began to be effective. The Triple Alliance or the Central Powers had promised to defend each other against the threats of the Allied Powers in the outbreak of any conflict. This means that an incident that may have been isolated turned into a much larger conflict that spread throughout Europe as allies came to each other's aid.

 

Serbia is a Slavic relative of Russia. The invasion of Belgrade by Austria-Hungary led to Russia coming to the aid of their Slavic cousins, and also Great Britain and France coming to the aid of their Russian ally.

 

The Triple Alliance or the central powers saw an exit of Italy, and an addition of Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire. As a result of this new alliance, Germany, Bulgaria and the Ottoman empire came to the aid of their Austro-Hungarian ally. Thus, the world was set ablaze.

 

In a similar vein; world war 2 was a war of two main global alliances. The allied powers of the United States, Great Britain, France, Canada, Australia, and other dominions of the British common wealth, and French territories.

 

Then you had the axis powers of Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler, imperial Japan under Hideki Tojo, and Fascist Italy under Benito Mussolini.

 

The end of world war 2 in 1945, and the defeats suffered by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan paved the way for another alliance to be formed. Nazi Germany had been partitioned into two. West Germany and East Germany by two strange bed fellows who were allies in that global conflict against Nazi Germany.

 

The Western countries took charge of West Germany, whilst the Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc took charge of East Germany. These events took place after the Yalta and Potsdam conferences that birthed the United Nations from its precursor, the league of nations. With the passage of time, two rival military alliances emerged from this post world war 2 schism. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was founded on the 4th of April, 1949, and the Warsaw Pact, which was formed on the 14th of May, 1955. 

 

With the fall of communism in the early 1990s, and the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, Warsaw Pact was dissolved, whilst NATO continues to exist. In recent decades, NATO has made inroads into Eastern Europe.

 

The war raging in Ukraine is simply the resultant effect of a weaker Ukraine desiring protection from this Western Military Alliance, by way of membership. Ukraine desires protection from Russia, which is the aggressor in this two year old conflict. A conflict that could trigger another apocalyptic event if Ukraine's application for membership of NATO is finally approved.

 

The de facto alliance of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran is a formidable alliance that dwarfs the previous alliances of both the first and second world wars put together. And this could be the bane of NATO in the face of the two potential world war 3 triggers- The war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza.

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