• The coming ice age. Right now we are entering the part of a Milankovic cycle (a rhythmic series of hot and cold periods in an ice age period, with a frequency of some 80-100 thousand years), which will sooner or later bring a new ice age with glaciers piling up 10000 feet over Canada, and ice tongues reaching down to New York City. Every ice age in the past had been preceded by a series of hot years, as we witnessed over the last years. A similar cycle occurred in the middle ages, when excellent quality wine grew in Kent, and gold was mined in the Alps up to 10000 feet. In these warm years, the Vikings settled a lush, verdant Greenland. Surprisingly, the shift from a warming-up cycle to a cold cycle occurs within only one to four years (based on studies on glacial ice cores in the arctic).

• Even a moderate temperature drop would tremendously affect world’s food production. It would shift the grain belt from Canada to Texas. Some areas in the world would benefit from better climate, such as North Africa. Northern Europe and most of Canada would become unsuitable for any kind of agriculture.

• Earthquakes and tsunamis are killers. Massive gravity slides occurring on the ocean margins have the potential of triggering ‘tidal’ waves higher then 300 feet. Geological record shows that major tsunami events can strike several hundred miles inland, with unspeakable consequences. If one of the Hawaii islands would disintegrate and glide into the ocean, the resulting tsunami could potentially kill 80 % of the coastal population between northern Mexico and Alaska.

• Asteroid impacts have almost wiped out life on earth several times. An impact at the end of the Permian period, documented by high iridium concentrations and fullerenes in sediment, killed some 60-75% of all life forms on earth. A similar impact seemed have led to the demise of the dinosaurs and ammonites at the end of the Cretaceous period. When large asteroids, comets or planetoids strike earth, gigantic earthquakes and flood surges follow. Opposite of the impact area, the energy is re-focused and ruptures the lithosphere, causing massive outpouring of flood basalt lava, covering ten thousands of square miles. Large impacts will also trigger massive gravity slides along the ocean margins, burn earth’s vegetation and or poison the atmosphere.

• Super volcanoes are super guns aimed at the world. There are at least five to seven super volcanoes known; the biggest example in the Americas is the Yellowstone Park area. Magma has risen very close to surface over an area of several hundred square miles, and the volcano’s roof is partly kept suspended by an unstable equilibrium of overburden liquid and dissolved partial gas pressure in the magma. A major explosion of Yellowstone could kill a large percentage of the Northern American human and animal population. Other known super volcanoes lurk under the Indonesian island arc, and under Italy.

What does that mean for the future of humanity? It means, that a continuous rise of the world population is not only unsustainable because of a shortfall of protein, clean drinking water etc.  It will affect sooner or later the world climate, leading to a massive deterioration of general living conditions. Human population will be brought back to an ecologically acceptable level. These changes won’t be peaceful. They will be accompanied by systematic warfare and genocide, following quarrels over the available remaining resources. 

On top of this heavy agenda, there may be dramatic natural disasters on a biblical scale waiting.  When will it happen? Nobody knows. But Murphy’s Law tells us ‘that what can happen, will happen.’ Obviously every endeavor reducing the negative impact of human population growth should be actively pursued.  On an individual level, people should enjoy their lives with gratefulness, love and dignity, and not spend their lives collecting money. There may be no (easy?) tomorrow.

(c) 2004 by Franz L. Kessler