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Blogs by Erik Hare
Handicapping 1/6/2008 1:51:29 PM
As much as I hate the process, the presidential campaign is compelling. After all, whoever gets through this gets a chance to run a great nation right at the moment in history when it looks like it has “Fall of Rome II: The Wrath of the Con” written all over it. Why someone would want the job, I don’t know, but one of these players will be our next President.
Looking beyond the dirt and noise of the horserace can be difficult in the excitement of the track, but a wise player knows to watch the betting and how the jockeys are handling their mounts. That’s where the real action is, and this year has its share. Running down the card one at a time:
Barack Obama The real question he faced at the start was, “Can a black man get white votes?” The answer is a certain “Yes!” What is more important is that this is a year for outsiders, given the terrible mess that insiders have created in Washingtoon. Being an African-American only helps his perception as an outsider, meaning there may even be an advantage in his skin color. More significant, the way his field workers are organized and committed reminds me when Bush appointed Colin Powell to be Secretary of State – there was universal agreement that the best man for the job got it, nevermind that he happened to be black. In the mechanics of running a race, the best person – or, more accurately, the best organization – seems to be pulling away. The skin color? As Martin Luther King said, “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” I think we have arrived at that day. I am very pleased. I think we still have to see just who he is, but that takes more time than this one week at the track.
Hillary Clinton The consummate insider, always more at home in a closed-door meeting than on a campaign trail, Hillary totally misjudged the mood of the people. Her palpable panic after Iowa has been a marked contrast from Bill’s smooth-talking in 1992, where he characterized himself as “The Comeback Kid” after coming in third in Iowa and losing New Hampshire. Hillary’s latest mantra, that she’s been working for change all her life, simply doesn’t ring true. She might as well be saying, “I got more change than a sofa cushion!” the way it falls out of her mouth on the stump. It’s just stupid. This “Sofa King Stupid” strategy (you may have to say it out loud) won’t get her anywhere. What I like about her is that deep inside I still think there’s a “Goldwater Girl” who has a deep sense of prudence and caution. A liberal with good instincts is just what we could use right now, but she has to make the case. Her reliance on insider status totally missed what is going on in people’s heads right now, however. She might as well have broken a leg.
John Edwards His schtick seems to be the same as Dick Gephardt’s, staying very true to the union line. He’s getting about as much as Gephardt ever did, which should surprise no one. The only added twist appears to be a bit of “I was Bill Clinton just after Bill Clinton stopped being cool,” a good healthy dose of DLC centrist homily and southern hominy. I don’t get it, and it doesn’t appear that a lot of other people do, either.
Bill Richardson The best credentials of anyone in the race, and a good mix of insider and outsider. The one candidate that has posed genuine challenges to the nation, especially in economic and energy policy, wallows between being unknown and unpopular. Go figger.
Mike Huckabee Christian Conservatives need to believe in him, and if they do that will be the end of things. They don’t so far, which in a field of people with weak Christian credentials really says something. South Carolina will tell us if they have gelled around the Republican far outsider, and somewhere in here we’ll see if anyone else comes along for the ride. What’s great about the Christians is that they are lest than honest to pollsters, meaning that Huckabee might continue to surprise us. That’s always good.
John McCain There was a time when I was sure I could vote for him. Right now, he has an air of being the Ghost of Christmas Past, a reminder of how things could have been if we hadn’t gone down the road we did. He’s lost his outsider luster after supporting the war, so no one can tell just which side of the Potomac he represents. He’s also not at his top racing form, like a horse that everyone wonders where he went after winning the Kentucky Derby 8 years ago. I don’t see him going anywhere.
Mitt Romney I can’t say much about him because I don’t know who he is. From what I can tell in the polls, no one else knows who this guy is, either. He’s got the needed outsider cred for 2008, but do you ever bet on a far longshot to do anything other than show? I don’t think so. Yet there’s a lot of money on him, but it looks more like they bought their slips more out of a lack of anyone else to bet on. This could make for an interesting race, but he still seems rather dull all the same. If this draws out, he could be a consensus candidate, something like a mudder. That may not be a bad bet when it looks like rain.
Mike Bloomberg Last Tuesday I outlined the scenario where his candidacy creates a Constitutional Crisis we haven’t seen since 1820 (link below). That’s still a real possibility, but he has to decide to run first. What would cause him to run? He’s often said that he will only run if he can win and if he is needed. I think that this means that Hillary Clinton has to stumble, since Bloomberg is friends with Robert Rubin (Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton) and Clinton is the Senator from his home state of New York. Clinton seems to be stumbling badly, so the odds of an independent Bloomberg candidacy are probably increasing. If the match-up for the big race is Obama-Huckabee, I think this is one longshot that may be worth putting a bet on.
That’s my roundup of the race just one day before New Hampshire. Stay tuned to see if we get to live out the wonderful Russian curse, “May you live in interesting times.”
