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Erik Hare

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Blogs by Erik Hare

You've Got a Friend in Pennsylvania
4/21/2008 5:57:11 AM

I’ve been hesitant to write about the US Election for many reasons. For one, I have a lot of readers in Europe now, and I have to wonder how much they care about our obscure process. For another, it seems like everything possible has been said by the talking heads during the last six weeks, so what do I have to add? I have my usual routine, it turns out, so I thought I’d have at it the day before the primary in the land of my ethnic origins, Pennsylvania.

So who’s gonna win? That depends on what “win” means and which poll you believe. I’ll start with the latter. I posted some time ago how voters born after 1965 are likely to make up as much as 45% of the electorate this year. You can find the first of my “Generations” series here:

http://www.authorsden.com/visit/viewblog.asp?authorid=55121&blogid=30169

I’ve done an informal survey of the polls I can find “crosstabs” for; that’s the data on who made up the poll and how these sub-groups break down. Very few polls provide crosstabs, so I’m hesitant to put the work into a real study. But to give you one anecdote based on a very recent poll, the Quinnipiac, they showed Clinton leading 51-44 but among those under 45 years old she trails 41-57 and wins those older 54-40. For those numbers to give us the “final” result stated, they must have only 20% of the poll under 45 years of age. That’s ridiculous, even in an old state like Pennsylvania. If you adjust that share just up to 30% younger than 45, you find Clinton ahead 46-43 – which is about where most polls have the race.

Here’s my prediction for tomorrow: Clinton wins by 3-5% and it’ll be considered a big loss. The party leaders will start trying to put an end to this slugfest.

Why will they do that?

Because this race has gotten nasty, and mainly affecting Clinton so far. There’s been some damage done to the certain nominee, Obama, but according to a Newsweek poll most Democrats now see Clinton as dishonest. That’s not a position where anyone can say that there is a reason to continue.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/132721

Well, it could continue just for the entertainment value, assuming you come from a bizarre parallel universe where this is a kind of reality show that is remotely interesting. Consider for a moment that the Pittsburgh Tribune endorsed Clinton after she and her entourage had a cheerful, chatty little visit. Not strange? Yes, but this is the paper started by Richard Mellon Scaife more or less to harpoon the (Bill) Clinton administration. Their first really big story was how Vince Foster was murdered by Hillary to cover up their affair. Now Hillary Clinton is chummy with them?

The short answer is that this, the (latest) ravings of Ann Coulter, and the delusions of relevance put forth by Rush Limbaugh are all converging on the campaign of Hillary Clinton There is a kind of symbiosis between the haters and the hated, as each keeps the other visible. Take one side away and the whole industry starts to fall apart, unless they can goose their ratings with more proof Obama is a “secret Muslim”.

What’s this all mean as we watch the results? Look for the Hater Leeches to puff Clinton and her narrow win even as the Democrat names try to put an end to it. That’s all that matters at this stage.

Comments (2)

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