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It's Still Over 3/9/2008 5:13:28 PM
I said a few weeks ago that I wasn’t going to say anything more about the Presidential race because there was nothing more to say. Since that time, many people have said many things, but strangely were able to miss the one thing that is important:
It’s still over. Only moreso.
We all read on Wednesday, 5 March, about the great triumph that Hillary Clinton won the previous night. 3 states in all were hers, and the race had opened up. She had the momentum, and Bill started right in calling for Obama to take a slot as her Veep.
Well, there’s only one small problem with that way of looking at it, and I’ll give you a link to one of my fave sites:
As you can see, since that night we’ve added Wyoming to the mix and the net total gain for Clinton has been 8 delegates, 189-181. The total pledged delegate deficit of 155 hardly budged. But there’s still more to the story as this is the period between a lot of primaries. If you want to follow the Superdelegates, you can best do it here:
Since last Tuesday, Obama has out-turned Supers by 8-2 net overall, meaning that the tiny delegate lead that Clinton picked up on Tuesday is now down to a net gain of 2. And that’s before Mississippi votes – a state whose 33 delegates will be decided in a primary that is polling around 60-40 for Obama, give or take. In other words, through the course of this week Clinton will have almost certainly lost ground in her fight for the nomination.
Now, I realize that the overall lead of 123 delegates isn’t a big number. In the grand scheme of things, it’s a 52-48 kind of lead, not a knockout. But it’s worth noting that this is bigger than what Clinton won Texas by, and she got to crow about that.
Why does this mean it’s over? It’s the math, stupid. There are 599 pledged delegates remaining to be decided, and for Clinton to make up the 123 deficit she would have to win all the remaining delegates 60-40 while stopping Obama’s momentum on Supers. That’s not going to happen in Mississippi nor in North Carolina, two states that look to be 60-40 for Obama, not Clinton. It’s just not going to work for her.
Clinton fans point to two scenarios under which their candidate makes up a lot of ground in a hurry. One is that Florida and Michigan delegations are seated as they are currently constituted, which gives Clinton a big bump. The other is that Obama starts to fade and the Supers go Clinton’s way. But there is a problem with both of these scenarios – they will rip the Democratic Party apart.
In the Florida and Michigan delegations, you have one candidate that played by the rules and the agreements, and one that did not. Obviously, penalizing the one that went by the agreements will create tremendous anger. In the case of Supers going against the candidate who is ahead in delegates you will need to have a party establishment that over-rides the stated will of the people. Both of these scenarios say very clearly, “We may be the party of rules and fairness, but that doesn’t apply to you.”
To understand what will happen, should this come to pass, you need to understand how the American public would respond. Keep in mind that 52% of all Americans now call themselves “Democrats”. That backs up this fascinating series of polls by SurveyUSA, the pollster’s pollster, which shows that this is indeed the year for Democrats:
While there is a good lead for either Democrat at this stage, it's not a knockout. There are many states that McCain is at least competitive in, even though the Dems have a clear advantage. Is it still possible for us to do what Democrats are so good at, which is to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Oh yes, it is. It would take more than a Dukakis tank. It would take more than a big screwup in Florida, though we already have that. It would take even more than a slow response to Swiftboat fabrications.
No, my friends, there is only one way we can lose the incredible chance we have this year. It will take a 1968 grade implosion of the party started by a repudiation of the rules and procedures and any belief that it was ever about “fairness” from the start.
These data shows that there is only one way we can blow this, and Hillary Clinton seems to be Hell bent on making it happen. That’s just what it means to be an old-school Democrat, I guess.
Hillary Clinton cannot be elected President any longer. Her only paths to the nomination will hand the election to John McCain. It is still over except for the potential to destroy the party and squander the best opportunity we’ve had in my lifetime. Why anyone would want that, I don’t know. Why anyone can’t see that, well, they aren’t paying much attention – or have what it takes to actually be the President.
