Erik Hare, click
here to update your pages on AuthorsDen.
Blogs by Erik Hare
A Fun Evening Ahead? 2/5/2008 9:19:26 AM
I just received an e-mail from a friend stating that I didn’t make any predictions for Super Tuesday, or at least not direct ones that can be pointed to and laughed at later. Being a Celt, it goes without saying that there’s no point in being interested in a sport if you don’t know how to handicap it for betting purposes. So here is not only my prediction but my handy guide to watching the results roll in tonight.
Make popcorn.
I look at what is really in play and what we can use as a reliable bellwether. Keep in mind that a bellwether is a neutered ram that has been further humiliated by having a bell tied around its neck, standing sentry over any disturbance in the flock. Having said that, this is what we can expect.
New York has voted for Clinton before, and they will again out of both pride and habit. New Jersey has seen a lot of her, too, and is widely expected to go along. Illinois will do the same for Obama, and he’s heavily ahead in Georgia and Alabama, too. Those taken as givens are 339 delegates for Clinton and 292 for Obama, nearly a wash. Granted, the complicated rules of awarding delegates proportionally by Congressional District, etc, mean it won’t be that clean, but that’s the rough starting point we have.
The key contests early on are in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Wait, didn’t I say that everyone put the Garden State firmly on Clinton’s side? Ah, but the polls there had it closing into a tight race, and turnout is reported as being very heavy. There are signs of a big Obama upset in New Jersey, all exits to be precise. Massachusetts is harder to call, but with the blitz the Kennedys and John Kerry have put on Obama is at least even. Look to these three states early on to see what kind of night we will have – if Obama gets any 2 of them, he wins this. New Jersey is the real bellwether, and that’s not just a oblique Jersey joke (I have better).
Then, we move on. Oklahoma and Tennessee are both Clinton territory, 106 delegates total, but later on they are met with Obama’s strength in Colorado and Kansas, 87 total. Ignore those. The real fight as we move into Central Time is in Missouri and Minnesota, both up for grabs and a total of 144 delegates. Obama needs to win at least one of them. Missouri appears to have reacted badly to the South Carolina theatrics as it’s one of the few states where Clinton’s number’s went down as Obama’s went up, meaning that it wasn’t just undecided voters making up their mind. I think that the larger African-American population of Missouri might put a heavy price on Bill Clinton’s routine.
Then it all rolls into Mountain time, where Arizona and New Mexico at 82 total should be for Clinton. They may not be. We should know by then what this evening is going to be like.
California will be a mess. Obama looks to win it rather big, and its 370 delegates swamp everything else from early in the evening. However, many of the ballots will be hand counted on paper since the state’s electronic voting machines were de-certified last year. Yes, that’s right, it will be laaaaate at night before we know about that one.
So what is my prediction? I think Obama is going to kick serious ass, and I’ll put that wager down on New Jersey, thank you. I see three levels for tonight – a rough tie, which means Obama exceeds expectations, a solid win for Obama in California, meaning he’s the front runner, or a major rout that tells us it’s all over. Mass, Jersey, and Conneticut will tell us if it’s the latter early on, which is what I expect now.
Further notes:
I think it’s cute how Teddy Kennedy says the name “Obama” with a little pause that makes it sound like an Irish name – O’bama.
Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain, and his numbers in California went down. Is that telling us something about Ahnold?
Last night on CNN there was a clip of Obama at the Meadowlands where he sounded even more like Dr. King than usual. He’s really revving up the cadence. Is America ready for JFK and MLK rolled into one? His expectations are really starting to peak, and he’s only feeding that fire.
Clinton plain looks tired lately. I think she caught a cold at the last minute the way she’s been so hoarse. I think that if this goes down the way I think she can legitimately chalk it up to bad luck – not just for the cold, but for the simple fact that her great resume and experience suddenly became a liability in a rather crazy year.
The Republicans are doing what I thought they would, which is get together as a team. If Rush Limburger doesn’t get on the team soon, he’ll be left in the cheering section. Romney might not think this is over, but it’s over. Republicans do not fight other Republicans – it’s Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment, fer Ronnie’s Sake!
