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Blogs by Sam Penny
radio interview questions 7/5/2004 7:03:29 PM
I am in training for doing effective radio interviews to pitch my books. Here is my first draft of questions and responses. It will be interesting to see how they change in time.
Q: Why did you start writing about earthquakes?
A: Have you ever felt the earth shake? I have, the worst time in 1989 when I felt the Loma Prieta earthquake, called the World Series earthquake, and freaked out. My former offices were less than a mile from the freeway that fell; I had driven that freeway almost every day. I saw a mile and a half of double deck concrete highway that had collapsed into a pile of rubble less than ten feet high. No one knew why it fell, but the engineers who studied it learned how earthquakes could destroy structures that shouldn’t fail. As I read USGS and other reports I came to understand the true dangers of giant earthquakes and began my 7.9 Scenario books. Memphis 7.9 is the first story to tell you how an earthquake really happens; Broken River 7.9, coming out this fall, tells you how the Mississippi River levees and bridges can fail and destroy the US economy. Two follow-on books are in the works: Recovery 7.9 describes the attempts of our land to recover from such a catastrophe, and Writing The 7.9 Scenario provides the basis for the novels.
Q: Why write about an earthquake in Memphis instead of California?
A: Where do you think the really big earthquakes will happen in our country – on the west coast? You’re wrong; the biggest earthquake to strike the United States in recorded history happened 193 years ago on the New Madrid Fault along the Mississippi River. I have talked to too many people in the Central United States who do not realize, or are in a state of denial, that they live within the reach of the most dangerous fault in the US. They can prepare for an earthquake that will do ten times as much damage as one of the same magnitude in California and maybe save the lives of their family. But to prepare they must learn what can happen and plan ahead.
Q: If it is so dangerous, why haven’t we heard of it?
A: Would you believe some authorities have their heads in the sand, and many people just don’t believe it will happen? It is amazing, but some in the establishment do not want to publicize the potential disaster from a giant earthquake in mid-America. They seem to be afraid people will get upset and scared and possibly jeopardize some development projects. My calculations show tens of thousands killed, millions left homeless. The characters of Memphis 7.9 are fictitious, but the account, which may seem like fiction, is real. The more people understand what can happen, the safer our country will be.
Q: What are the chances a 7.9 earthquake will happen?
A: Do you play Russian Roulette? The odds are about the same. The USGS says a central US earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or higher has a 10% chance of happening in the next 50 years, and a smaller event of 6.5 or higher is 40% possible. If you play the Russian game with a twelve shot revolver you have an 8% chance of blowing your brains out on a single pull. The odds are small, but the risks are simply too high. If we continue to downplay preparations, we are risking the lives of our children and grandchildren and the economic future of our country. The first step is to understand what can happen and start planning now.
Q: What is The 7.9 Scenario?
A: When I started my studies into earthquakes after the 1989 earthquake, I used government figures to estimate on a county-by-county basis the property, economic and personal damage from a giant 7.9 earthquake on the New Madrid Fault. I summed the results for all counties in the eastern United States with damage to see the total impact on the country, producing what I call The 7.9 Scenario. The results were astounding. A 7.9 magnitude earthquake like the first one that happened 193 years ago is strong enough to produce half a million casualties, leave six to ten million homeless, and wipe out 10% of the US Gross Domestic Product. The information in my books provides some of the details of how this all happens.
Q: What does the first chapter tell the reader?
A: Did you know that seismologists already predict a giant earthquake in the center of the United States? They just cannot tell you when. Memphis 7.9 begins when a young scientist pinpoints the exact time and place of the next big earthquake. But the important lesson is that if you have not prepared and have no idea how to use such knowledge, even knowing the exact time is of no value.
Q: What are the authorities doing about it?
A: Not enough. Listen, I had a top public official in Memphis tell me he wishes the fault would just go away so he wouldn’t have to make a decision about applying higher building standards. I talked with a researcher in Illinois who couldn’t get funding to just assess the effects of a giant earthquake on the central US transportation network. I listened to an emergency planner tell me he was ready to quit because he cannot convince the involved agencies to take time to plan for recovery from a large-scale catastrophic event. I continue to be startled when decision makers in high places are willing to sacrifice safety for dollars. Earthquake planning and mitigation already work around the world; why not along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers? I believe that by shining a light on this problem this faulty lack of thinking can be corrected.
Q: What can be done to change all that?
A: How many of your listeners are willing to be counted among those who care about the future of our country? If I can get one-tenth of those who do care to learn about the earthquake danger facing our land and future generations and to spread the word to the authorities that they are concerned, the future can be changed. Many of those in control show an appalling lack of concern about the danger of a disastrous earthquake: they are unaware, or they don’t understand the implications, or their priorities are somewhere else, or they simply prefer to ignore the possibilities. Generating enough heat and noise about the problem will raise their level of concern.
Q: What kind of shaking will my listeners feel?
A: What about you? Did you feel the earthquake of 19xx? Did it cause any damage? What you may feel in your city and the damage the shaking causes depends on many factors. However, I can say that the biggest danger to your city is . . . An earthquake on the xyz fault could produce shaking that is hard enough to . . . The key thing is that the more your listeners understand how an earthquake happens and how far it can spread, the safer they will be. It takes time to consider specific situations, so I have set up a special email address: michaeldresser.the79scenario.com, to answer specific questions from your listeners. Email your questions to michaeldresser.the79scenario.com and I will reply as soon as I have done the research, and I will educate Michael about your concerns.
Q: What should my listeners do to protect themselves?
A: All of you listening, hear this. Your safety depends on you. When any large catastrophe hits your area, there probably will not be anyone out there who can immediately come to your aid. Whether it be a tornado or a flood or an earthquake or a blizzard, you are the one who can do the most to protect yourself and your family. Do you have some kind of plan? Do you have emergency supplies? Have you checked that your home or business buildings are prepared for the violence of Mother Nature? Have you learned all there is to know about the dangers around you? Take interest in your future and be prepared; don’t expect others to prepare for you.
Q: How can someone order your books?
A: Google for Memphis 7.9 or just go to my website at www.the79scenario.com and click on the Purchase button. That will show you all the purchase options. Either order from the website or go to one of several on-line bookstores like booksurge and amazon. That address is t-h-e-7-9-s-c-e-n-a-r-i-o dot com. While you are there, request the free report summarizing the latest earthquake dangers in your area that I prepared specifically for this show.
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