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Blogs by Lawrance G Lux
Economic Data Distortions 1/22/2004 2:42:30 PM
Republican playing with the numbers.
George W. Bush may find a harsh election season this year, forced to provide real answers to some hard questions. Now a private Committee of Economists, who lost it's founding member and ideological guide, suggest a starting date for the last Recession be moved to November 2000, from its current date of March 2001. Their rationale for doing this comes from monthly GDP reports never before considered. These are not even the first GDP reports issued for the Periods in question, but revised reports issued by the Bush Commerse Department. The original reports would have vindicated the March 2001 starting date for the last Recession.
Robert Barro says in an article that Unemployment figures are very unreliable, though the same statistics have been used for Decades. This data is assuredly bad, but it has always been bad. The man himself has used this data previously to defend Republican positions.
George W. Bush will have a hard time getting reelected. Republicans are trying hard, but face a hard sale. They still refuse to admit the majority of Government revenue comes from SS taxes, which are spent as general revenue to pay Federal deficit spending. The deficit of something like $370 b, is vastly understated, it being actually over $600 b without the SS tax payments. Next year's defeat will be over $500 b, even with the SS tax payments. No numbers given, but eight new spending proposals by Bush in the State of the Union, will cost an absolute excess of more than an additional $300 b. The Economy is down in real terms, when considered from the aspect of Jobs and Manufacturing. Housing construction, Services, and the Stock Market remains the sole criteria leading to any gains in GDP, and does not discount for Inflation.
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