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Blogs by Lawrance G Lux
Year Review 12/31/2003 9:17:01 AM
Estimate of what was accomplished, and what was not. The increase of Christmas Sales over last year's was not sufficient to meet Target values for Ecoonomic estimates on 2003 economic growth--We had literally three out of four losing Quarters.
Home Sales have started to drop, only pre-owned units listed by major Economic reporting institutions, who try to hide the extreme drop in Housing starts. Consumer Confidence is seen to be dropping, within the Q4 reporting; a truly worrisome element when connected with bland Christmas Sales, it could herald a major decline in Q1 2004. Inventories are dropping while Manufacturing Jobs are still declining, a condition which has predicated almost all major recessions. This is a trend which has occurred for over a Year, negating the claim it is simple business restructuring. The Stock Market is up for the Year 2003, but Ten-Year Treasuries are increasing in Interest rates. This indicates some major Stock Analyists predict there is inflation in Stock pricing. Another negative Indicator is the fact most Corporations have greater Pension Fund deficits, than at the start of the Year.
All rumors coming from Washington sound the same note: the Deficit is accelerating, not contracting, with Tax Revenues falling and Expenditures increasing. Economists know the rate of acceleration of Deficit spending is often more important than the largesse of the Deficit; Government expenditures often demanding later expenditures to complement orginal expenditures.
2004 may portend an increasing economic growth, but economic inefficiency remains evident; the Job Market will not improve without increase in Inventory and Product order backlogs, which are not predicted for Q1 2004. The lack of New Hires, if continued through Q1, will bring at least a Five percent drop in Consumer Demand throughout Q2 2004. Most of this adverse Economic data has been the result of poor economic policy on the part of the current Administration, which sought to wildly inflate Government spending with cutting Tax Revenues by Tax Cuts; this actually destroyed Business incentive to invest in poor performance industries, as they could show Profitability by venue of Tax remissions. lgl
