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Blogs by Lawrance G Lux
Eat Crow--Maybe 4/2/2004 8:44:43 AM
The March Job report is out, and the increase in Jobs seems great, but is it? Manufacturing sector hiring was flat, though Hiring is normal in March to meet the Supply commitments for Contractors and Summer recreation. Flat is bad! Retail trade gained 13,000, but a number of Grocery strikes ended--but wait; didn't 20,000 Strikers return to work? Construction was up 71,000, which seems good, though the total was almost all in Specialty Trade contractor employment. January and Febuary was bad weather, programable bad weather in terms of amounts of damage incurred, requiring Specialty Trade contractors to fix. Levels of damage by scope of bad weather suggests there should have been 200,000 new Hires in March to correct problems, people might not have the wherewithal to immediately fix these problems. Government employment increased by 31,000, seasonally adjusted below normal yearly readouts.
The fact that the Manufacturing sector hiring was flat is the most worrisome. Hiring in this sector is long-term employment, though often with seasonal Layoffs. The increases in other sectors all indicate short-term employment, except for Government hiring. The Author is counting on his fingers again, but still thinks there has been a loss of 7000 Jobs in the Retail sector. The financial sector is depressing, because Mortgage refinancing must come to a end someday, and this sector will resume it's Job loss pattern shortly. We are still in the 'Lean Cow' era. lgl
