Economic Forecasters today suggest Gross Domestic Product may be higher than previously predicted.

Domestic Forecasters express belief the GDP for 2004 will attain a growth rate in excess of 4.0%. Many claim that actual growth will be in excess of 3.0% for 2003, and 4.5% for 2004. Foreign Sources are equally as optimistic for their own nations, with South Korea even claiming double digits growth increases in their Exports. France and Germany claim growth rates equivalent to United States, though they are creating sharp deficits alongside the United States.  American Budget Analyists proclaim the American Deficit will not equal the percentage of GDP it achieved this year, though if there is growth no greater than likely for 2003; deficit percentage of GDP will exceed 1984, and reach the magnitudes not seen since WWII.

All Forecasters expect little improvement in the rate of Unemployment, with the rate for 2004 dropping to 5.8% from the current 6.0%.

The return on 401Ks is not expected to increase throughout 2004, Wages will remain suppressed throughout 2004 because of the rate of Unemployment and downsizing of Technical workers, and the Government is planning to expand it's Expenditures above it's current growth rate (7.2%):  in Expenditures; this through passage of a $400 Billion Proscription Drug expansion of Medicare, and a $30 Billion Energy Bill. Two of the factors insist Federal revenues will continue to decrease, one insists that Federal Expenditures will increase by an approximate 2% a year, to a level of 9% increase in Federal expenditures per year.

All Economic Forecasters adhere to the principle of Keynesianism, insisting Deficit spending spurs the Economy.

Government Deficit spending absorbs Capitalization assets, places Inflationary pressures of Resource and Production markets, and actually reduces the Discretionary spending power of Consumers. Keynesian deficit spending can only spur the Economy under certain limited conditions, and then only in deep recessionary cycle.  The Unemployment rate must be over 18%, Productive capacity has to be producing at less than 57% of potential, and Resource Recovery must be working at less than 84% potential. Countercyclical effects of Deficit spending always cancel any benefits, unless the above Conditions are in effect.

The actual proper Economic policy for the current stability of the Economy insists on a return to the Tax levels introduced in 1993, alongside closing of Tax loopholes for Corporations and Business.

The above is anathema to Supply-Side and Monetarist Economists, but is the correct policy alternative. The 2004 Deficit can be expected to exceed $700 Billion, while the current year Deficit can be expected to exceed $600 Billion after reestimation. Both will be assured if Christmas Sales lag more than 12% behind 2000 Christmas Sales. lgl